Football · Bulgaria First League · 06/09, 18:00
Prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
Team pages: Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Cherno More Varna
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.23
Cherno More Varna1.02
1X2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Draw
Cherno More Varna
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Cherno More Varna
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–2–3
Cherno More Varna
(6 last)
- Cherno More Varna2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-1Cherno More Varna
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Cherno More Varna1-2Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-2Cherno More Varna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1450 · Cherno More Varna 1474
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cherno More Varna: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.7 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–2–3 Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 26/04/26 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Cherno More Varna |
| 15/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 23/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 08/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 19/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 18 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Septemvri Sofia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Botev Plovdiv | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Arda Kardzhali | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Dunav Ruse | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Spartak Varna | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Botev Plovdiv | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Plovdiv (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 16/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 03/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 25/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (40%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 40%, draw 30%, Cherno More Varna 30%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.23 · Cherno More Varna 1.02), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.