Football · Bulgaria First League · 29/08, 17:00
Prediction: CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
Team pages: CSKA Sofia · Cherno More Varna
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
CSKA Sofia1.98
Cherno More Varna0.61
1X2
CSKA Sofia
Draw
Cherno More Varna
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
CSKA Sofia
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Cherno More Varna
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CSKA Sofia
1–4–1
Cherno More Varna
(6 last)
- Cherno More Varna2-0CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia0-0Cherno More Varna
- CSKA Sofia2-1Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna0-0CSKA Sofia
- CSKA Sofia1-1Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna0-0CSKA Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CSKA Sofia 1529 · Cherno More Varna 1479
| CSKA Sofia | Draw | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 21% | 9% |
| Market | 70% | 20% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia (rating 1529 vs 1479).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CSKA Sofia | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.4 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CSKA Sofia 1–4–1 Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 09/08/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 22/04/25 Bulgaria Cup | CSKA Sofia | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 09/04/25 Bulgaria Cup | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 15/03/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cherno More Varna |
| 28/09/24 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CSKA Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 14 | Botev Vratsa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CSKA Sofia | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Dunav Ruse | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Botev Plovdiv | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: CSKA Sofia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/07 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 17 | 5 | W |
| 20/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 08/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 25/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA Sofia win (70%). Probabilities: CSKA Sofia 70%, draw 20%, Cherno More Varna 10%.
How many goals are expected in CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
The model expects 2.59 goals (CSKA Sofia 1.98 · Cherno More Varna 0.61), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.