Football · Bulgaria First League · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Team pages: CSKA 1948 Sofia · Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.79

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.89

1X2

57% 25% 17%

CSKA 1948 Sofia Draw Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CSKA 1948 Sofia 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDWWWW

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLWLLL

Head-to-head

CSKA 1948 Sofia 5–1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv (6 last)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-5CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia4-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-1CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia2-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-2CSKA 1948 Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-1CSKA 1948 Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1587 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1476

	CSKA 1948 Sofia	Draw	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Our model	57%	25%	17%
Market	58%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA 1948 Sofia (rating 1587 vs 1476).
H2H favours CSKA 1948 Sofia: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CSKA 1948 Sofia	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	1.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.70

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.60▲	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	5.75 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:48	1.53	3.80	5.75
20:20 +2’	1.60▲	3.70▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CSKA 1948 Sofia 5–1–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0-5 HT 0-2	CSKA 1948 Sofia
20/09/25 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	4-0 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25/05/25 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0-1 HT 0-1	CSKA 1948 Sofia
08/03/25 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-1 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
19/09/24 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0-2 HT 0-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia
21/04/24 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1-1 HT 0-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ludogorets Razgrad	6	5	1	0	11	4	16
2	Levski Sofia	5	5	0	0	15	2	15
3	CSKA Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	3	13
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	5	4	1	0	13	6	13
5	Arda Kardzhali	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
6	Botev Plovdiv	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
7	Spartak Varna	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
8	Slavia Sofia	5	1	3	1	5	3	6
9	Cherno More Varna	6	1	1	4	7	13	4
10	Septemvri Sofia	5	1	1	3	3	9	4
11	Dunav Ruse	6	1	0	5	5	12	3
12	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	5	1	0	4	3	7	3
13	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	5	0	2	3	5	10	2
14	Botev Vratsa	5	0	1	4	3	13	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CSKA 1948 Sofia	Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Cherno More Varna	4-1 W	0-2 L
Arda Kardzhali	2-1 W	0-4 L
Spartak Varna	2-2 D	0-1 L
Levski Sofia	0-0 D	0-2 L
Ludogorets Razgrad	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA 1948 Sofia (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CSKA 1948 Sofia

LLDWDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	1-1	4-1	7	2	W
08/08	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	3-1	5	5	W
31/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
25/07	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
17/07	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	3	D
25/05	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
16/05	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
13/05	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
08/05	CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
02/05	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-1	8	2	L

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

WLLWDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-2	11	5	L
07/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
03/08	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	4	10	L
26/07	Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
18/07	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
29/05	Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
25/05	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
16/05	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-3	0-4	2	2	L
12/05	Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
08/05	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-0	2-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA 1948 Sofia win (57%). Probabilities: CSKA 1948 Sofia 57%, draw 25%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 17%.

How many goals are expected in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

The model expects 2.68 goals (CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.79 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.