Football · Bulgaria First League · 29/08, 17:00
Prediction: Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
Team pages: Botev Plovdiv · Levski Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
Botev Plovdiv0.79
Levski Sofia1.48
1X2
Botev Plovdiv
Draw
Levski Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Botev Plovdiv
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Levski Sofia
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botev Plovdiv
1–2–3
Levski Sofia
(6 last)
- Levski Sofia3-0Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv0-1Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia1-1Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv1-0Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia1-1Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv1-3Levski Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botev Plovdiv 1500 · Levski Sofia 1618
| Botev Plovdiv | Draw | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 29% | 52% |
| Market | 20% | 26% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1500 vs 1618).
- H2H favours Levski Sofia: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botev Plovdiv | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.7 | 2.2 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Plovdiv 1–2–3 Levski Sofia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 30/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 30/03/25 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 05/10/24 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 12/11/23 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 22/07/23 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 14 | Botev Vratsa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Botev Plovdiv | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Spartak Varna | 3-2 W | 6-0 W |
| CSKA Sofia | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Levski Sofia (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botev Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 10/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
3-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 20/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 25/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 12/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
Levski Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 07/08 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 17/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Levski Sofia win (53%). Probabilities: Botev Plovdiv 20%, draw 27%, Levski Sofia 53%.
How many goals are expected in Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Botev Plovdiv 0.79 · Levski Sofia 1.48), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.