Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 23/08, 12:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs FC Tallinn

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 · FC Tallinn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

FC Levadia Tallinn U212.25

FC Tallinn1.59

1X2

52% 22% 26%

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Draw FC Tallinn

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Tallinn 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2–1–3 FC Tallinn (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn U214-0FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn4-2FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Tallinn2-3FC Levadia Tallinn U21
FC Levadia Tallinn U215-6FC Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn U210-2FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn1-1FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 1538 · FC Tallinn 1491

	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	Draw	FC Tallinn
Our model	52%	22%	26%
Market	52%	21%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (rating 1538 vs 1491).
H2H favours FC Tallinn: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	FC Tallinn
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	1.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.31
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.90 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +3’	1.73	4.20	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:12	1.55	4.37	3.91
07:06 +1’	1.56▲	4.31▼	3.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2–1–3 FC Tallinn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	4-0 HT 3-0	FC Tallinn
27/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	4-2 HT 1-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
18/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	2-3 HT 0-2	FC Levadia Tallinn U21
26/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	5-6 HT 3-4	FC Tallinn
19/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Tallinn
16/03/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Levadia Tallinn U21

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	24	16	3	5	70	33	51
2	Viimsi JK	24	12	5	7	43	24	41
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	24	12	4	8	57	42	40
4	FC Elva	24	11	4	9	42	37	37
5	JK Tallinna Kalev	24	10	5	9	47	42	35
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	24	9	5	10	36	51	32
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	24	10	1	13	45	47	31
8	JK Nomme United II	24	7	6	11	42	52	27
9	FC Tallinn	24	6	7	11	30	52	25
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	24	5	4	15	31	63	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	FC Tallinn
Tartu JK Welco	2-4 L	2-0 W
JK Nomme United II	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Elva	2-2 D	0-3 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	3-2 W	1-1 D
FC Flora Tallinn II	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn U21

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-4	6	2	L
15/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	4	9	L
08/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
18/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
11/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-2	8	6	W
05/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
21/06	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	4-0	3	3	W
18/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-3	8	4	L
31/05	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	8	7	W

FC Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
11/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W
21/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-3	0	5	L
13/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs FC Tallinn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn U21 win (52%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn U21 52%, draw 22%, FC Tallinn 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs FC Tallinn?

The model expects 3.84 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn U21 2.25 · FC Tallinn 1.59), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn U21 vs FC Tallinn?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.