Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 29/08, 11:30

Prediction: FC Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju II

Team pages: FC Tallinn · JK Nomme Kalju II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

FC Tallinn2.17

JK Nomme Kalju II1.78

1X2

47% 22% 32%

FC Tallinn Draw JK Nomme Kalju II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tallinn 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWDLDL

JK Nomme Kalju II 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Tallinn 5–1 JK Nomme Kalju II (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju II1-3FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn6-3JK Nomme Kalju II
FC Tallinn2-1JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II1-0FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn7-0JK Nomme Kalju II
JK Nomme Kalju II2-4FC Tallinn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tallinn 1517 · JK Nomme Kalju II 1363

	FC Tallinn	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju II
Our model	46%	22%	32%
Market	47%	21%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tallinn (rating 1517 vs 1363).
H2H favours FC Tallinn: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tallinn	JK Nomme Kalju II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	0.8 / 3.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.8	1.7 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:28 +5’	1.91	4.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tallinn 5–0–1 JK Nomme Kalju II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Tallinn
04/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	6-3 HT 2-2	JK Nomme Kalju II
27/09/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	2-1 HT 0-1	JK Nomme Kalju II
09/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Tallinn
03/06/25 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Tallinn	7-0 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju II
20/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme Kalju II	2-4 HT 1-0	FC Tallinn

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	25	17	3	5	74	35	54
2	Viimsi JK	25	13	5	7	47	25	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	25	12	5	8	57	42	41
4	FC Elva	25	11	5	9	42	37	38
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	25	10	5	10	39	52	35
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	25	10	5	10	48	45	35
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	25	11	1	13	47	48	34
8	JK Nomme United II	25	7	6	12	43	56	27
9	FC Tallinn	25	6	7	12	31	54	25
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	25	5	4	16	33	67	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tallinn	JK Nomme Kalju II
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-2 L	0-2 L
JK Nomme United II	1-1 D	0-2 L
Maardu Linnameeskond	0-1 L	1-4 L
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 D	0-3 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-0 W	0-3 L
Tartu JK Welco	2-0 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tallinn (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tallinn

LLLWWWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
15/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
01/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
18/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
04/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-2	4-3	7	9	W
21/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-4	4	3	L
18/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-3	0	5	L
13/06	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-4	5	3	L

JK Nomme Kalju II

LDDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-4	2	3	L
20/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
17/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
10/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-3	0-3	0	4	L
01/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-4	5	2	L
25/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-5	5	4	L
18/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
11/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-2	1	1	D
05/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-2	4	1	D
21/06	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-5	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Tallinn win (47%). Probabilities: FC Tallinn 47%, draw 22%, JK Nomme Kalju II 32%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

The model expects 3.95 goals (FC Tallinn 2.17 · JK Nomme Kalju II 1.78), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tallinn vs JK Nomme Kalju II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.