Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 29/08, 18:00

Prediction: Tartu JK Welco vs Viimsi JK

Team pages: Tartu JK Welco · Viimsi JK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Tartu JK Welco1.99

Viimsi JK1.68

1X2

45% 23% 32%

Tartu JK Welco Draw Viimsi JK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Tartu JK Welco 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLLWWW

Viimsi JK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Tartu JK Welco 1–1–4 Viimsi JK (6 last)

Tartu JK Welco2-2Viimsi JK
Viimsi JK2-0Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco1-4Viimsi JK
Viimsi JK3-2Tartu JK Welco
Viimsi JK2-1Tartu JK Welco
Tartu JK Welco3-1Viimsi JK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tartu JK Welco 1576 · Viimsi JK 1569

	Tartu JK Welco	Draw	Viimsi JK
Our model	45%	23%	32%
Market	45%	22%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Viimsi JK: 4-1-1.
High corners: 15.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tartu JK Welco	Viimsi JK
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6.7	4.6 / 8.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	5.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.00

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:41 +8’	2.00	4.00	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tartu JK Welco 1–1–4 Viimsi JK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	2-2 HT 2-1	Viimsi JK
23/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	2-0 HT 1-0	Tartu JK Welco
03/10/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	1-4 HT 0-2	Viimsi JK
18/08/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	3-2 HT 2-1	Tartu JK Welco
23/07/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Viimsi JK	2-1 HT 0-1	Tartu JK Welco
26/04/25 Estonia Esiliiga	Tartu JK Welco	3-1 HT 1-1	Viimsi JK

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	25	17	3	5	74	35	54
2	Viimsi JK	25	13	5	7	47	25	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	25	12	5	8	57	42	41
4	FC Elva	25	11	5	9	42	37	38
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	25	10	5	10	39	52	35
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	25	10	5	10	48	45	35
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	25	11	1	13	47	48	34
8	JK Nomme United II	25	7	6	12	43	56	27
9	FC Tallinn	25	6	7	12	31	54	25
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	25	5	4	16	33	67	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tartu JK Welco	Viimsi JK
JK Nomme Kalju II	4-2 W	2-2 D
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	4-2 W	5-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn II	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Elva	1-2 L	1-3 L
JK Nomme United II	1-2 L	4-1 W
Maardu Linnameeskond	8-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tartu JK Welco (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tartu JK Welco

WWDWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	4-2	14	3	W
20/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
15/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
08/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-2	8	5	L
01/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
18/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
13/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	4-1	8-1	4	3	W
02/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
21/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	3-1	5-2	3	2	W
18/06	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	3-1	4	4	W

Viimsi JK

LDDLWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	4-1	10	5	W
21/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-2	8	9	L
15/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	4	9	W
08/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
03/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-2	7	8	L
27/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	3-0	7	7	W
16/07	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	11	5	L
11/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-2	2-2	23	1	D
02/07	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-2	6	8	D
22/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tartu JK Welco vs Viimsi JK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tartu JK Welco win (45%). Probabilities: Tartu JK Welco 45%, draw 23%, Viimsi JK 32%.

How many goals are expected in Tartu JK Welco vs Viimsi JK?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Tartu JK Welco 1.99 · Viimsi JK 1.68), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tartu JK Welco vs Viimsi JK?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.