Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 29/08, 11:30

Prediction: FC Flora Tallinn II vs JK Tallinna Kalev

Team pages: FC Flora Tallinn II · JK Tallinna Kalev

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.7Total

FC Flora Tallinn II2.05

JK Tallinna Kalev1.65

1X2

47% 23% 31%

FC Flora Tallinn II Draw JK Tallinna Kalev

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Flora Tallinn II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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JK Tallinna Kalev 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Flora Tallinn II 2–1–3 JK Tallinna Kalev (6 last)

FC Flora Tallinn II3-1JK Tallinna Kalev
JK Tallinna Kalev1-4FC Flora Tallinn II
JK Tallinna Kalev3-1FC Flora Tallinn II
JK Tallinna Kalev1-0FC Flora Tallinn II
JK Tallinna Kalev1-1FC Flora Tallinn II
FC Flora Tallinn II1-5JK Tallinna Kalev

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Flora Tallinn II 1511 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1558

	FC Flora Tallinn II	Draw	JK Tallinna Kalev
Our model	47%	23%	31%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tallinna Kalev (rating 1511 vs 1558).
H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Flora Tallinn II	JK Tallinna Kalev
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	4.2 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:46 +3’	1.91	4.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Flora Tallinn II 2–1–3 JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	3-1 HT 0-0	JK Tallinna Kalev
16/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-4 HT 1-2	FC Flora Tallinn II
18/01/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Tallinna Kalev	3-1 HT 2-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
16/10/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
07/08/21 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Tallinna Kalev	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Flora Tallinn II
19/06/21 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Flora Tallinn II	1-5 HT 0-2	JK Tallinna Kalev

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	25	17	3	5	74	35	54
2	Viimsi JK	25	13	5	7	47	25	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	25	12	5	8	57	42	41
4	FC Elva	25	11	5	9	42	37	38
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	25	10	5	10	39	52	35
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	25	10	5	10	48	45	35
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	25	11	1	13	47	48	34
8	JK Nomme United II	25	7	6	12	43	56	27
9	FC Tallinn	25	6	7	12	31	54	25
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	25	5	4	16	33	67	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Flora Tallinn II	JK Tallinna Kalev
FC Elva	0-0 D	1-0 W
Viimsi JK	2-1 W	2-1 W
JK Nomme Kalju II	3-0 W	3-0 W
FC Tallinn	0-1 L	1-1 D
Maardu Linnameeskond	1-3 L	1-3 L
JK Nomme United II	1-1 D	3-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	0-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: JK Tallinna Kalev (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Flora Tallinn II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
21/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-1	2	9	W
15/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
10/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
01/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
25/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	5-0	6	4	W
18/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-1	10	1	D
09/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
05/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	0-4	6	3	L

JK Tallinna Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	4	5	L
20/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	3-0	9	5	W
15/08	FC Elva Estonia Esiliiga	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
18/07	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
11/07	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-3	7	6	L
03/07	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	–	3-3	–	–	D
21/06	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	5-1	7	1	W
18/06	JK Nomme United II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	12	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Flora Tallinn II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Flora Tallinn II win (47%). Probabilities: FC Flora Tallinn II 47%, draw 23%, JK Tallinna Kalev 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Flora Tallinn II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model expects 3.7 goals (FC Flora Tallinn II 2.05 · JK Tallinna Kalev 1.65), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Flora Tallinn II vs JK Tallinna Kalev?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.