Football · Estonia Esiliiga · 30/08, 14:00

Prediction: JK Nomme United II vs FC Elva

Team pages: JK Nomme United II · FC Elva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

JK Nomme United II1.52

FC Elva1.82

1X2

32% 23% 44%

JK Nomme United II Draw FC Elva

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United II 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Elva 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

JK Nomme United II 2–0 FC Elva (2 last)

JK Nomme United II1-0FC Elva
FC Elva1-3JK Nomme United II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United II 1460 · FC Elva 1537

	JK Nomme United II	Draw	FC Elva
Our model	32%	25%	44%
Market	33%	22%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Elva (rating 1460 vs 1537).
H2H favours JK Nomme United II: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United II	FC Elva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X4.00

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
05:57 +7’	2.75	4.00	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United II 2–0–0 FC Elva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Estonia Esiliiga	JK Nomme United II	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Elva
19/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga	FC Elva	1-3 HT 1-0	JK Nomme United II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	25	17	3	5	74	35	54
2	Viimsi JK	25	13	5	7	47	25	44
3	FC Flora Tallinn II	25	12	5	8	57	42	41
4	FC Elva	25	11	5	9	42	37	38
5	Maardu Linnameeskond	25	10	5	10	39	52	35
6	JK Tallinna Kalev	25	10	5	10	48	45	35
7	FC Levadia Tallinn U21	25	11	1	13	47	48	34
8	JK Nomme United II	25	7	6	12	43	56	27
9	FC Tallinn	25	6	7	12	31	54	25
10	JK Nomme Kalju II	25	5	4	16	33	67	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United II	FC Elva
Viimsi JK	1-4 L	3-1 W
JK Nomme Kalju II	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Levadia Tallinn U21	1-2 L	2-2 D
Tartu JK Welco	2-1 W	2-1 W
JK Tallinna Kalev	1-3 L	0-1 L
FC Flora Tallinn II	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Elva (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-4	3	5	L
20/08	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
17/08	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
08/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-2	3	2	L
01/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	2-1	5	2	W
27/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-3	1	7	L
18/07	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
12/07	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
04/07	FC Tallinn Estonia Esiliiga	2-3	3-4	12	9	L
30/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	1-1	3-3	2	5	D

FC Elva

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
20/08	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
15/08	JK Tallinna Kalev Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
08/08	Tartu JK Welco Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	2-1	4	5	W
01/08	FC Levadia Tallinn U21 Estonia Esiliiga	0-0	2-2	7	3	D
16/07	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
05/07	JK Nomme Kalju II Estonia Esiliiga	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
22/06	FC Flora Tallinn II Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
18/06	Viimsi JK Estonia Esiliiga	0-1	0-1	1	9	L
11/06	Maardu Linnameeskond Estonia Esiliiga	1-3	4-3	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United II vs FC Elva?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Elva win (44%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United II 32%, draw 23%, FC Elva 44%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United II vs FC Elva?

The model expects 3.34 goals (JK Nomme United II 1.52 · FC Elva 1.82), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United II vs FC Elva?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.