Football · Brazil Serie A · 03/09, 00:30

Prediction: Flamengo vs Mirassol

Team pages: Flamengo · Mirassol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Flamengo2.35

Mirassol0.73

1X2

73% 18% 9%

Flamengo Draw Mirassol

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Flamengo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDDWWL

Mirassol 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDWLLD

Head-to-head

Flamengo 2–1–0 Mirassol (3 last)

Mirassol1-5Flamengo
Mirassol3-3Flamengo
Flamengo2-1Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flamengo 1610 · Mirassol 1457

	Flamengo	Draw	Mirassol
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	73%	18%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1610 vs 1457).
H2H favours Flamengo: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Flamengo	Mirassol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.27

X5.25

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.02

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:39 +5’	1.27	5.25	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 2–1–0 Mirassol

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	1-5 HT 0-1	Flamengo
06/12/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	3-3 HT 2-2	Flamengo
09/08/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	2-1 HT 1-0	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	24	13	5	6	34	22	44
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	24	11	6	7	34	33	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Bragantino	23	10	5	8	28	23	35
8	Coritiba	24	9	7	8	30	31	34
9	Atletico Mineiro	23	9	6	8	30	27	33
10	Corinthians	24	8	8	8	26	24	32
11	Botafogo	23	8	6	9	37	37	30
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	23	35	29
13	Sao Paulo	23	7	6	10	27	27	27
14	Santos	23	6	8	9	33	36	26
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
17	Mirassol	23	6	6	11	26	36	24
18	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
19	Vasco da Gama	23	5	7	11	24	38	22
20	Chapecoense	23	2	8	13	24	46	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Flamengo	Mirassol
Cruzeiro	1-2 L	1-3 L
Chapecoense	4-0 W	1-1 D
Athletico Paranaense	1-1 D	0-1 L
Gremio	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Flamengo (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Flamengo

WDLWWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	5-1	3	3	W
10/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
30/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
26/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
30/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
24/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	8	12	L
18/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
11/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Mirassol

DLWLWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
24/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
10/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Mirassol?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (73%). Probabilities: Flamengo 73%, draw 18%, Mirassol 9%.

How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Mirassol?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Flamengo 2.35 · Mirassol 0.73), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.