Football · Poland III Liga · 22/08, 12:00

Prediction: Sparta Katowice vs Sleza Wroclaw

Team pages: Sparta Katowice · Sleza Wroclaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Sparta Katowice2.08

Sleza Wroclaw0.9

1X2

64% 21% 15%

Sparta Katowice Draw Sleza Wroclaw

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Katowice 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLWDW

Sleza Wroclaw 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLLWL

Head-to-head

Sparta Katowice 1–1 Sleza Wroclaw (2 last)

Sparta Katowice0-1Sleza Wroclaw
Sleza Wroclaw0-1Sparta Katowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Katowice 1545 · Sleza Wroclaw 1498

	Sparta Katowice	Draw	Sleza Wroclaw
Our model	64%	22%	14%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1545 vs 1498).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Katowice	Sleza Wroclaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +3’	1.40	4.33	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Katowice 1–0–1 Sleza Wroclaw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Poland III Liga	Sparta Katowice	0-1 HT 0-0	Sleza Wroclaw
30/08/25 Poland III Liga	Sleza Wroclaw	0-1 HT 0-1	Sparta Katowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	4	2	2	0	6	4	8
4	Wisla Krakow II	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
5	Wisloka Debica	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
6	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Hetman Zamosc	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
8	Moravia Morawica	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
9	Czarni Polaniec	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
10	Naprzod Jedrzejow	4	2	0	2	9	11	6
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
12	JKS Jaroslaw	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
13	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
15	Star Starachowice	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
16	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
17	Korona Kielce II	4	0	1	3	9	12	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Katowice	Sleza Wroclaw
LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj	2-1 W	2-0 W
Stal Brzeg	1-1 D	1-5 L
KS Stilon Gorzow	2-1 W	1-3 L
Skra Czestochowa	1-0 W	1-2 L
Slowianin Woliborz	1-0 W	2-0 W
Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie	1-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sparta Katowice

WWLWWDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
14/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	7	8	W
01/08	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
08/07	GKS Tychy 71 Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
24/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
16/05	Skra Czestochowa Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
29/04	Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	2	W

Sleza Wroclaw

WLWWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	0	2	L
15/08	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
07/08	Stal Brzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	1-5	2	5	L
01/08	KS Stilon Gorzow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
18/07	Chrobry Glogow Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
29/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-2	0-6	0	3	L
23/05	Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
16/05	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
13/05	Skra Czestochowa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
08/05	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Katowice vs Sleza Wroclaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Katowice win (64%). Probabilities: Sparta Katowice 64%, draw 21%, Sleza Wroclaw 15%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Katowice vs Sleza Wroclaw?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Sparta Katowice 2.08 · Sleza Wroclaw 0.9), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Katowice vs Sleza Wroclaw?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.