Football · Poland III Liga · 29/08, 12:00

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok II · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Jagiellonia Bialystok II1.77

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1.68

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Jagiellonia Bialystok II Draw Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWDDWL

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDLLWWW

Head-to-head

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1–2–3 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (6 last)

Jagiellonia Bialystok II2-3Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki1-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki3-1Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II3-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki7-0Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II1-1Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1505 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1522

	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	Draw	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +4’	2.25	3.75	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1–2–3 Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/11/25 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	2-3 HT 0-2	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
08/08/25 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-1 HT 1-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
05/04/25 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	3-1 HT 2-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
07/09/24 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	3-1 HT 2-1	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
15/05/24 Poland III Liga	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	7-0 HT 4-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
21/10/23 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	1-1 HT 1-0	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	5	4	1	0	9	3	13
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	5	3	2	0	7	4	11
4	Wisla Krakow II	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
5	Czarni Polaniec	5	3	0	2	8	8	9
6	JKS Jaroslaw	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
7	Wieczysta Krakow II	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
9	Wisloka Debica	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
10	Hetman Zamosc	5	1	3	1	7	5	6
11	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
12	Naprzod Jedrzejow	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
15	Star Starachowice	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
16	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	5	1	1	3	6	8	4
17	Korona Kielce II	5	0	1	4	12	16	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki
KTS Weszlo	0-4 L	1-2 L
CK Troszyn	0-1 L	1-4 L
Mlawianka Mlawa	1-0 W	3-2 W
LKS Lomza	0-2 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jagiellonia Bialystok II

LWLWDWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
19/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
15/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
07/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/07	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	3-2	5	7	W
30/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
23/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
17/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
13/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

DLWLDLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	4-3	2	5	W
19/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
14/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	4-0	5-2	7	1	W
08/08	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
31/07	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
30/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	7	6	L
17/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
13/05	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
09/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok II win (40%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok II 40%, draw 24%, Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 36%.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1.77 · Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki 1.68), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.