Football · Poland III Liga · 29/08, 17:00

Prediction: Warta Gorzow vs Zaglebie Lubin II

Team pages: Warta Gorzow · Zaglebie Lubin II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Warta Gorzow1.46

Zaglebie Lubin II1.55

1X2

35% 25% 39%

Warta Gorzow Draw Zaglebie Lubin II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Gorzow 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWDDW

Zaglebie Lubin II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWDDWW

Head-to-head

Warta Gorzow 2–4 Zaglebie Lubin II (6 last)

Warta Gorzow1-2Zaglebie Lubin II
Zaglebie Lubin II3-0Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow1-0Zaglebie Lubin II
Zaglebie Lubin II5-0Warta Gorzow
Warta Gorzow1-2Zaglebie Lubin II
Zaglebie Lubin II1-2Warta Gorzow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Gorzow 1511 · Zaglebie Lubin II 1503

	Warta Gorzow	Draw	Zaglebie Lubin II
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Zaglebie Lubin II: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Gorzow	Zaglebie Lubin II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:59 +22’	2.50	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Gorzow 2–0–4 Zaglebie Lubin II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	1-2 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Lubin II
31/10/25 Poland III Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	3-0 HT 0-0	Warta Gorzow
07/05/22 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	1-0 HT 0-0	Zaglebie Lubin II
02/10/21 Poland III Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	5-0 HT 2-0	Warta Gorzow
24/04/21 Poland III Liga	Warta Gorzow	1-2 HT 1-1	Zaglebie Lubin II
12/09/20 Poland III Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	1-2 HT 1-0	Warta Gorzow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	5	4	1	0	9	3	13
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	5	3	2	0	7	4	11
4	Wisla Krakow II	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
5	Czarni Polaniec	5	3	0	2	8	8	9
6	JKS Jaroslaw	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
7	Wieczysta Krakow II	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
9	Wisloka Debica	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
10	Hetman Zamosc	5	1	3	1	7	5	6
11	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
12	Naprzod Jedrzejow	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
15	Star Starachowice	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
16	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	5	1	1	3	6	8	4
17	Korona Kielce II	5	0	1	4	12	16	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Gorzow	Zaglebie Lubin II
Carina Gubin	2-1 W	1-4 L
MKS Kluczbork	1-0 W	3-1 W
Polonia Nysa	1-0 W	2-2 D
Miedz Legnica II	0-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warta Gorzow

LWLWWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/08	Gornik Polkowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Barycz Sulow Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
08/08	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
01/08	ROW 1964 Rybnik Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	7	5	L
30/05	Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/05	Zaglebie Lubin II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
09/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	1	8	W
01/05	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	6	2	L

Zaglebie Lubin II

WLWLLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W
19/08	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
16/08	Rakow Czestochowa II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	6	7	D
08/08	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
01/08	Sparta Katowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
30/05	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	4	4	L
22/05	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	9	8	L
15/05	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	1	1	W
12/05	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	7	3	L
08/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	2-0	5-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Gorzow vs Zaglebie Lubin II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Zaglebie Lubin II win (39%). Probabilities: Warta Gorzow 35%, draw 25%, Zaglebie Lubin II 39%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Gorzow vs Zaglebie Lubin II?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Warta Gorzow 1.46 · Zaglebie Lubin II 1.55), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Gorzow vs Zaglebie Lubin II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.