Football · Poland III Liga · 29/08, 15:00

Prediction: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz

Team pages: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki · Warta Sieradz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1.53

Warta Sieradz1.32

1X2

42% 25% 33%

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Draw Warta Sieradz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWDLD

Warta Sieradz 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWDWL

Head-to-head

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1–5 Warta Sieradz (6 last)

Warta Sieradz3-1MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki0-1Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz2-0MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1-4Warta Sieradz
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki0-2Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz1-2MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1481 · Warta Sieradz 1550

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Draw	Warta Sieradz
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Sieradz (rating 1481 vs 1550).
H2H favours Warta Sieradz: 5-0-1.
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Warta Sieradz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 7.4	3.1 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
18:46 +3’	2.10	3.80	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1–0–5 Warta Sieradz

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	3-1 HT 0-1	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
06/09/25 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-1 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz
22/03/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	2-0 HT 0-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
25/08/24 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-4 HT 1-2	Warta Sieradz
25/11/23 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-2 HT 0-1	Warta Sieradz
05/08/23 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	1-2 HT 0-1	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	5	4	1	0	9	3	13
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	5	3	2	0	7	4	11
4	Wisla Krakow II	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
5	Czarni Polaniec	5	3	0	2	8	8	9
6	JKS Jaroslaw	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
7	Wieczysta Krakow II	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
9	Wisloka Debica	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
10	Hetman Zamosc	5	1	3	1	7	5	6
11	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
12	Naprzod Jedrzejow	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
15	Star Starachowice	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
16	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	5	1	1	3	6	8	4
17	Korona Kielce II	5	0	1	4	12	16	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	Warta Sieradz
Wigry Suwalki	0-0 D	2-1 W
Wisla Plock II	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

WWLLLWWDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	3-0	4-0	15	2	W
01/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	7	10	W
30/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
23/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	7	3	L
17/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
13/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
09/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Warta Sieradz

WDDWWLWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	8	2	L
19/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
15/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
09/08	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
01/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
30/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
17/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki win (42%). Probabilities: MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 42%, draw 25%, Warta Sieradz 33%.

How many goals are expected in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz?

The model expects 2.84 goals (MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1.53 · Warta Sieradz 1.32), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki vs Warta Sieradz?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.