Football · Poland III Liga · 29/08, 12:00

Prediction: Wisla Plock II vs Mlawianka Mlawa

Team pages: Wisla Plock II · Mlawianka Mlawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Wisla Plock II1.76

Mlawianka Mlawa1.5

1X2

43% 24% 32%

Wisla Plock II Draw Mlawianka Mlawa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wisla Plock II 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWDDL

Mlawianka Mlawa 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Wisla Plock II 2–2 Mlawianka Mlawa (4 last)

Wisla Plock II2-1Mlawianka Mlawa
Mlawianka Mlawa2-1Wisla Plock II
Mlawianka Mlawa3-0Wisla Plock II
Wisla Plock II4-2Mlawianka Mlawa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisla Plock II 1543 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1475

	Wisla Plock II	Draw	Mlawianka Mlawa
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	44%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wisla Plock II (rating 1543 vs 1475).
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisla Plock II	Mlawianka Mlawa
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.8	3.2 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.75

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:22 +7’	2.05	3.75	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wisla Plock II 2–0–2 Mlawianka Mlawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	2-1 HT 1-1	Mlawianka Mlawa
22/08/25 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	2-1 HT 0-0	Wisla Plock II
19/04/25 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	3-0 HT 0-0	Wisla Plock II
21/09/24 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	4-2 HT 4-2	Mlawianka Mlawa

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	5	5	0	0	10	1	15
2	Wislanie Jaskowice	5	4	1	0	9	3	13
3	KSZO Ostrowiec	5	3	2	0	7	4	11
4	Wisla Krakow II	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
5	Czarni Polaniec	5	3	0	2	8	8	9
6	JKS Jaroslaw	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
7	Wieczysta Krakow II	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
8	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
9	Wisloka Debica	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
10	Hetman Zamosc	5	1	3	1	7	5	6
11	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
12	Naprzod Jedrzejow	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
14	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
15	Star Starachowice	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
16	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	5	1	1	3	6	8	4
17	Korona Kielce II	5	0	1	4	12	16	1
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	5	0	1	4	2	7	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisla Plock II	Mlawianka Mlawa
LKS Lomza	1-1 D	0-0 D
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	2-1 W	2-3 L
Warta Sieradz	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wisla Plock II

DDDWWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	7	3	L
19/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	8	10	D
15/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
31/07	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	8	8	W
30/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	6	2	W
23/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
17/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
13/05	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	11	6	D
09/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	5	D

Mlawianka Mlawa

LLWWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
19/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	14	6	L
14/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-2	1-5	5	5	L
07/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
30/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
17/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
13/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
09/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisla Plock II vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wisla Plock II win (43%). Probabilities: Wisla Plock II 43%, draw 24%, Mlawianka Mlawa 32%.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Plock II vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Wisla Plock II 1.76 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1.5), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisla Plock II vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.