Football · China Division 2 · 23/08, 10:00

Prediction: Shenzhen 2028 vs Hubei Istar

Team pages: Shenzhen 2028 · Hubei Istar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Shenzhen 20282

Hubei Istar1.09

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Shenzhen 2028 Draw Hubei Istar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Shenzhen 2028 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWLWD

Hubei Istar 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDDLLL

Head-to-head

Shenzhen 2028 1–0 Hubei Istar (1 last)

Hubei Istar1-2Shenzhen 2028

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shenzhen 2028 1562 · Hubei Istar 1483

	Shenzhen 2028	Draw	Hubei Istar
Our model	57%	23%	19%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shenzhen 2028 (rating 1562 vs 1483).
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shenzhen 2028	Hubei Istar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	0.8 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	4.00 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	6.50 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
03:09 +3’	1.40	4.00	6.50
11:47 +7’	1.57▲	3.70▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen 2028 1–0–0 Hubei Istar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	1-2 HT 1-1	Shenzhen 2028

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	21	13	2	6	32	17	41
2	Shenzhen 2028	21	10	7	4	37	24	37
3	Jiangxi Lushan	21	9	5	7	24	19	32
4	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	21	7	10	4	24	28	31
5	Hubei Istar	21	8	7	6	28	23	31
6	Xiamen Feilu	21	7	8	6	29	26	29
7	Guangdong Mingtu	21	5	11	5	22	19	26
8	Ganzhou Ruishi	21	6	8	7	19	28	26
9	Guangzhou Dandelion	21	6	6	9	22	28	24
10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	21	5	7	9	18	23	22
11	Wenzhou FC	21	3	10	8	13	23	19
12	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	21	3	7	11	16	26	16

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shenzhen 2028	Hubei Istar
Wenzhou FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Ganzhou Ruishi	6-0 W	4-4 D
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	0-1 L	2-0 W
Jiangxi Lushan	2-1 W	0-1 L
Guangzhou Dandelion	3-1 W	3-2 W
Guangdong Mingtu	2-2 D	0-0 D
Xiamen Feilu	0-0 D	0-0 D
Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	1-0 W	2-3 L
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	3-1 W	0-1 L
Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Shenzhen 2028 (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shenzhen 2028

DWWDDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	6-0	2	2	W
01/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/07	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
18/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
11/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
05/07	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
28/06	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
24/06	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
20/06	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	9	3	D

Hubei Istar

WDWDWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
08/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-1	2-3	3	4	L
05/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
01/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
26/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
18/07	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-4	0	0	D
27/06	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
23/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
19/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	2-0	3-2	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shenzhen 2028 vs Hubei Istar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shenzhen 2028 win (57%). Probabilities: Shenzhen 2028 57%, draw 24%, Hubei Istar 19%.

How many goals are expected in Shenzhen 2028 vs Hubei Istar?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Shenzhen 2028 2 · Hubei Istar 1.09), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Shenzhen 2028 vs Hubei Istar?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.