Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 23/08, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico Avila vs Monagas II

Team pages: Atletico Avila · Monagas II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Atletico Avila1.04

Monagas II1.33

1X2

29% 29% 42%

Atletico Avila Draw Monagas II

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Avila 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDLDDLDL

Monagas II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWDWL

Head-to-head

Atletico Avila 0–2 Monagas II (2 last)

Monagas II2-0Atletico Avila
Atletico Avila0-1Monagas II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Avila 1448 · Monagas II 1546

	Atletico Avila	Draw	Monagas II
Our model	28%	30%	42%
Market	29%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monagas II (rating 1448 vs 1546).
H2H favours Monagas II: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 13 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Avila	Monagas II
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.1	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.8	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.5 / 0.2	6.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.20

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:21 +2’	3.10	3.20	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Avila 0–0–2 Monagas II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Monagas II	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Avila
29/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Avila	0-1 HT 0-1	Monagas II

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monagas II	17	9	4	4	26	19	31
2	Deportivo Miranda FC	17	9	4	4	17	12	31
3	Bolivar SC	18	8	3	7	19	19	27
4	Dynamo Puerto FC	18	6	7	5	21	17	25
5	Aragua	17	6	6	5	14	12	24
6	CS Maritimo de La Guaira	14	5	5	4	16	13	20
7	Atletico Avila	17	1	10	6	8	17	13
8	Mineros	18	1	7	10	15	27	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Avila	Monagas II
Dynamo Puerto FC	0-3 L	2-2 D
Aragua	0-0 D	2-1 W
Deportivo Miranda FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Mineros	1-1 D	2-1 W
Bolivar SC	0-0 D	2-3 L
CS Maritimo de La Guaira	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Monagas II (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Avila

WLDDLDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
09/08	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
02/08	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	2	10	L
07/06	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/05	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/05	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
17/05	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
09/05	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
03/05	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
26/04	CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	3-2	4	9	W

Monagas II

WDDLWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-3	8	6	L
09/08	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	2	7	W
26/07	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
06/06	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
31/05	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
22/05	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
17/05	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
09/05	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
02/05	CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	0	7	D
26/04	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	3-2	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Avila vs Monagas II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Monagas II win (42%). Probabilities: Atletico Avila 29%, draw 29%, Monagas II 42%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Avila vs Monagas II?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Atletico Avila 1.04 · Monagas II 1.33), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Avila vs Monagas II?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.