Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 30/08, 22:30

Prediction: Barquisimeto vs Yaracuyanos

Team pages: Barquisimeto · Yaracuyanos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Barquisimeto1.65

Yaracuyanos1.08

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Barquisimeto Draw Yaracuyanos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Barquisimeto 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWDWL

Yaracuyanos 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDLDDWDW

Head-to-head

Barquisimeto 1–2 Yaracuyanos (3 last)

Barquisimeto0-4Yaracuyanos
Yaracuyanos1-0Barquisimeto
Barquisimeto2-1Yaracuyanos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barquisimeto 1499 · Yaracuyanos 1526

	Barquisimeto	Draw	Yaracuyanos
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Yaracuyanos: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barquisimeto	Yaracuyanos
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	3.9 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.1 / 0.6	4.9 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
21:38 +4’	1.80	3.40	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barquisimeto 1–0–2 Yaracuyanos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/26 Venezuela Cup	Barquisimeto	0-4 HT 0-3	Yaracuyanos
24/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Yaracuyanos	1-0 HT 0-0	Barquisimeto
29/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Barquisimeto	2-1 HT 0-1	Yaracuyanos

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	22	13	6	3	38	19	45
2	Urena SC	21	10	9	2	34	20	39
3	Barquisimeto	21	11	6	4	36	23	39
4	Yaracuyanos	21	9	6	6	27	21	33
5	Zamora II	22	7	7	8	32	33	28
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	22	7	5	10	27	29	26
7	Atletico Barinas	22	7	3	12	42	51	24
8	Atletico El Vigia	22	5	6	11	24	39	21
9	Real Frontera	21	3	2	16	19	44	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barquisimeto	Yaracuyanos
Atletico El Vigia	2-5 L	0-0 D
Atletico Barinas	5-1 W	1-2 L
Urena SC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Zamora II	2-1 W	2-1 W
Academia Puerto Cabello II	2-2 D	0-0 D
Real Frontera	2-1 W	2-0 W
CD Lara	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Yaracuyanos (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barquisimeto

LWLLWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-5	4	2	L
15/08	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	5-1	3	3	W
09/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
29/07	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	1	9	W
25/07	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	2	9	D
06/06	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	10	7	W
30/05	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
24/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	9	7	L
20/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
16/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	6	7	L

Yaracuyanos

WLWDLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
14/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
08/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
02/08	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-2	4	10	D
25/07	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
06/06	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
31/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	13	1	D
24/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
20/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-3	8	9	L
16/05	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	9	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barquisimeto vs Yaracuyanos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barquisimeto win (49%). Probabilities: Barquisimeto 49%, draw 27%, Yaracuyanos 24%.

How many goals are expected in Barquisimeto vs Yaracuyanos?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Barquisimeto 1.65 · Yaracuyanos 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barquisimeto vs Yaracuyanos?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.