Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 30/08, 21:00

Prediction: Bolivar SC vs Atletico Avila

Team pages: Bolivar SC · Atletico Avila

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Bolivar SC1.49

Atletico Avila0.62

1X2

58% 26% 15%

Bolivar SC Draw Atletico Avila

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Bolivar SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWLLWW

Atletico Avila 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLDDLDLL

Head-to-head

Bolivar SC 0–2–0 Atletico Avila (2 last)

Atletico Avila0-0Bolivar SC
Bolivar SC2-2Atletico Avila

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bolivar SC 1471 · Atletico Avila 1437

	Bolivar SC	Draw	Atletico Avila
Our model	57%	28%	14%
Market	59%	25%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bolivar SC	Atletico Avila
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	0.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.4	6.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.60

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:35 +5’	1.50	3.60	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bolivar SC 0–2–0 Atletico Avila

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Avila	0-0 HT 0-0	Bolivar SC
05/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Bolivar SC	2-2 HT 2-2	Atletico Avila

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monagas II	18	10	4	4	29	19	34
2	Deportivo Miranda FC	18	10	4	4	20	13	34
3	Aragua	19	7	7	5	17	13	28
4	Bolivar SC	18	8	3	7	19	19	27
5	Dynamo Puerto FC	20	6	7	7	22	22	25
6	CS Maritimo de La Guaira	14	5	5	4	16	13	20
7	Atletico Avila	18	1	10	7	8	20	13
8	Mineros	19	1	8	10	16	28	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bolivar SC	Atletico Avila
Monagas II	3-2 W	0-3 L
Dynamo Puerto FC	1-0 W	0-3 L
Aragua	0-1 L	0-0 D
Mineros	1-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Miranda FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bolivar SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bolivar SC

DLWLDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	3-2	4	6	W
09/08	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
01/08	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
26/07	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
06/06	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
31/05	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
23/05	CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
17/05	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-1	2	9	W
10/05	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	2	10	L
03/05	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	9	D

Atletico Avila

LDDLDDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	9	5	L
16/08	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	2	8	L
09/08	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
02/08	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	2	10	L
07/06	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
31/05	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/05	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
17/05	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
09/05	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	1	6	D
03/05	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bolivar SC vs Atletico Avila?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bolivar SC win (58%). Probabilities: Bolivar SC 58%, draw 26%, Atletico Avila 15%.

How many goals are expected in Bolivar SC vs Atletico Avila?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Bolivar SC 1.49 · Atletico Avila 0.62), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Bolivar SC vs Atletico Avila?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.