Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 02/09, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico El Vigia vs Atletico Barinas

Team pages: Atletico El Vigia · Atletico Barinas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Atletico El Vigia2.16

Atletico Barinas1.57

1X2

50% 24% 26%

Atletico El Vigia Draw Atletico Barinas

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico El Vigia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWDWWW

Atletico Barinas 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Atletico El Vigia 2–1 Atletico Barinas (3 last)

Atletico El Vigia2-0Atletico Barinas
Atletico Barinas7-1Atletico El Vigia
Atletico El Vigia3-2Atletico Barinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico El Vigia 1554 · Atletico Barinas 1483

	Atletico El Vigia	Draw	Atletico Barinas
Our model	50%	22%	27%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico El Vigia (rating 1554 vs 1483).
H2H favours Atletico El Vigia: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico El Vigia	Atletico Barinas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	2.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +32’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico El Vigia 2–0–1 Atletico Barinas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/08/26 Venezuela Cup	Atletico El Vigia	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Barinas
31/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	7-1 HT 2-0	Atletico El Vigia
05/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico El Vigia	3-2 HT 3-1	Atletico Barinas

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Lara	22	13	6	3	38	19	45
2	Barquisimeto	22	11	7	4	36	23	40
3	Urena SC	22	10	9	3	34	21	39
4	Yaracuyanos	22	9	7	6	27	21	34
5	Academia Puerto Cabello II	23	8	5	10	30	29	29
6	Zamora II	22	7	7	8	32	33	28
7	Atletico Barinas	22	7	3	12	42	51	24
8	Atletico El Vigia	23	6	6	11	25	39	24
9	Real Frontera	22	3	2	17	19	47	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico El Vigia	Atletico Barinas
Urena SC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Barquisimeto	5-2 W	1-5 L
Zamora II	2-0 W	2-3 L
Academia Puerto Cabello II	0-0 D	3-5 L
Real Frontera	3-1 W	3-1 W
CD Lara	2-1 W	1-4 L
Yaracuyanos	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico El Vigia (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico El Vigia

LLLDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	5-2	3	2	W
15/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	4	7	W
09/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
02/08	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-1	7	8	W
29/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
25/07	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
31/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-7	3	2	L
24/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
20/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-5	2	6	L

Atletico Barinas

WLWWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
15/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
09/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-3	2-3	6	4	L
02/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-3	3-5	4	6	L
29/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L
06/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
31/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
20/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico El Vigia vs Atletico Barinas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico El Vigia win (50%). Probabilities: Atletico El Vigia 50%, draw 24%, Atletico Barinas 26%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico El Vigia vs Atletico Barinas?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Atletico El Vigia 2.16 · Atletico Barinas 1.57), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico El Vigia vs Atletico Barinas?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.