Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 23/08, 21:30
Prediction: Atletico El Vigia vs Barquisimeto
Team pages: Atletico El Vigia · Barquisimeto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Atletico El Vigia1.03
Barquisimeto1.59
1X2
Atletico El Vigia
Draw
Barquisimeto
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico El Vigia
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Barquisimeto
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico El Vigia
1–2–3
Barquisimeto
(6 last)
- Barquisimeto5-0Atletico El Vigia
- Atletico El Vigia1-2Barquisimeto
- Barquisimeto1-0Atletico El Vigia
- Atletico El Vigia1-1Barquisimeto
- Barquisimeto1-1Atletico El Vigia
- Atletico El Vigia3-0Barquisimeto
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico El Vigia 1484 · Barquisimeto 1537
| Atletico El Vigia | Draw | Barquisimeto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Barquisimeto (rating 1484 vs 1537).
- H2H favours Barquisimeto: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico El Vigia | Barquisimeto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.8 | 1.6 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 6.3 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico El Vigia 1–2–3 Barquisimeto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division | Barquisimeto | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico El Vigia |
| 25/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division | Atletico El Vigia | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Barquisimeto |
| 13/09/25 Venezuela Segunda Division | Barquisimeto | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico El Vigia |
| 03/08/25 Venezuela Segunda Division | Atletico El Vigia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Barquisimeto |
| 07/06/25 Venezuela Segunda Division | Barquisimeto | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico El Vigia |
| 20/04/25 Venezuela Segunda Division | Atletico El Vigia | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Barquisimeto |
Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barquisimeto | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 39 |
| 2 | CD Lara | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 19 | 39 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 33 | 19 | 38 |
| 4 | Yaracuyanos | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 30 |
| 5 | Zamora II | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 28 |
| 6 | Academia Puerto Cabello II | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 26 |
| 7 | Atletico Barinas | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 41 | 50 | 23 |
| 8 | Atletico El Vigia | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 37 | 18 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 19 | 44 | 11 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico El Vigia | Barquisimeto |
|---|---|---|
| Zamora II | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Academia Puerto Cabello II | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Real Frontera | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| CD Lara | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Yaracuyanos | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Atletico Barinas | 1-7 L | 5-1 W |
| Urena SC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico El Vigia (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico El Vigia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 02/08 | Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 29/07 | CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-2 | 1-7 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/05 | Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 0-5 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Barquisimeto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division |
2-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 29/07 | Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 25/07 | Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 06/06 | Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 24/05 | Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 20/05 | Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division |
1-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico El Vigia vs Barquisimeto?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Barquisimeto win (50%). Probabilities: Atletico El Vigia 24%, draw 27%, Barquisimeto 50%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico El Vigia vs Barquisimeto?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Atletico El Vigia 1.03 · Barquisimeto 1.59), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico El Vigia vs Barquisimeto?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.