Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 23/08, 21:30

Prediction: Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC

Team pages: Atletico Barinas · Urena SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Atletico Barinas1.5

Urena SC1.83

1X2

30% 26% 44%

Atletico Barinas Draw Urena SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Barinas 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWLLL

Urena SC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWWWDD

Head-to-head

Atletico Barinas 0–2 Urena SC (2 last)

Urena SC1-0Atletico Barinas
Atletico Barinas2-4Urena SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Barinas 1494 · Urena SC 1570

	Atletico Barinas	Draw	Urena SC
Our model	31%	25%	45%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Urena SC (rating 1494 vs 1570).
H2H favours Urena SC: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Barinas	Urena SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.4	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:13 +10’	3.00	3.40	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Barinas 0–0–2 Urena SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Urena SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Barinas
25/03/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Atletico Barinas	2-4 HT 2-1	Urena SC

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Barquisimeto	20	11	6	3	34	18	39
2	CD Lara	20	11	6	3	33	19	39
3	Urena SC	20	10	8	2	33	19	38
4	Yaracuyanos	20	8	6	6	25	20	30
5	Zamora II	20	7	7	6	31	29	28
6	Academia Puerto Cabello II	21	7	5	9	27	26	26
7	Atletico Barinas	21	7	2	12	41	50	23
8	Atletico El Vigia	21	4	6	11	19	37	18
9	Real Frontera	21	3	2	16	19	44	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Barinas	Urena SC
Barquisimeto	1-5 L	1-1 D
Zamora II	2-3 L	2-2 D
Academia Puerto Cabello II	3-5 L	1-0 W
Real Frontera	3-1 W	5-1 W
CD Lara	1-4 L	3-2 W
Yaracuyanos	2-1 W	1-1 D
Atletico El Vigia	7-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Urena SC (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Barinas

DWLWWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
09/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-3	2-3	6	4	L
02/08	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-3	3-5	4	6	L
29/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
25/07	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-4	2	5	L
06/06	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
31/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	7-1	7	2	W
20/05	Urena SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
09/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-2	6	6	D

Urena SC

LDWWDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
03/08	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	1-2	2-2	2	9	D
29/07	Academia Puerto Cabello II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
25/07	Real Frontera Venezuela Segunda Division	3-0	5-1	4	6	W
06/06	CD Lara Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-2	2	6	W
31/05	Yaracuyanos Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
24/05	Atletico El Vigia Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
20/05	Atletico Barinas Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
09/05	Barquisimeto Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
03/05	Zamora II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Urena SC win (44%). Probabilities: Atletico Barinas 30%, draw 26%, Urena SC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Atletico Barinas 1.5 · Urena SC 1.83), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Barinas vs Urena SC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.