Football · Iraq Stars League · 26/08, 17:45

Prediction: Al Kahrabaa vs Al Karma

Team pages: Al Kahrabaa · Al Karma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Al Kahrabaa0.99

Al Karma1.46

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Al Kahrabaa Draw Al Karma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Kahrabaa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWDWLD

Al Karma 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDLDWDDWDW

Head-to-head

Al Kahrabaa 1–1–1 Al Karma (3 last)

Al Karma4-0Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa4-1Al Karma
Al Karma1-1Al Kahrabaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Kahrabaa 1486 · Al Karma 1538

	Al Kahrabaa	Draw	Al Karma
Our model	25%	29%	47%
Market	25%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1486 vs 1538).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Kahrabaa	Al Karma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.20

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:51 +13’	3.60	3.20	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Kahrabaa 1–1–1 Al Karma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	4-0 HT 2-0	Al Kahrabaa
28/06/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	4-1 HT 0-0	Al Karma
03/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	1-1 HT 0-0	Al Kahrabaa

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Al Naft SC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	Al Karma	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Mosul FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Al Gharraf	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Al Minaa	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Al Jolan SC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Diyala FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Zakho	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Duhok	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Karbalaa FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Al Zawra'a	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Naft Maysan	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Al Talaba	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
16	Newroz SC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	Al Shorta SC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Ghaz Al Shamal	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Al Kahrabaa	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
20	Al Karkh	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Kahrabaa	Al Karma
Newroz SC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Al Karkh	1-3 L	0-0 D
Naft Maysan	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Karma (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Kahrabaa

LLLDWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
27/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
11/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
06/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	5	7	D
27/04	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
23/04	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
17/04	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-3	3	5	L

Al Karma

DDLDWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
27/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
14/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
10/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	3	9	W
05/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
01/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
26/04	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	8	4	D
22/04	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	8	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Karma?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Karma win (47%). Probabilities: Al Kahrabaa 25%, draw 28%, Al Karma 47%.

How many goals are expected in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Karma?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Al Kahrabaa 0.99 · Al Karma 1.46), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Karma?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.