Football · Iraq Stars League · 04/09, 20:00

Prediction: Naft Maysan vs Newroz SC

Team pages: Naft Maysan · Newroz SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Naft Maysan1.09

Newroz SC1.11

1X2

34% 31% 35%

Naft Maysan Draw Newroz SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Naft Maysan 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDDLD

Newroz SC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDLLLD

Head-to-head

Naft Maysan 3–2–1 Newroz SC (6 last)

Newroz SC2-0Naft Maysan
Newroz SC1-2Naft Maysan
Newroz SC2-2Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan1-0Newroz SC
Newroz SC0-0Naft Maysan
Newroz SC1-2Naft Maysan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naft Maysan 1517 · Newroz SC 1474

	Naft Maysan	Draw	Newroz SC
Our model	33%	32%	35%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naft Maysan (rating 1517 vs 1474).
H2H favours Naft Maysan: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naft Maysan	Newroz SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2.1 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
06:14 +2’	2.60	3.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Naft Maysan 3–2–1 Newroz SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	2-0 HT 2-0	Naft Maysan
20/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	1-2 HT 1-1	Naft Maysan
12/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	2-2 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan
11/12/24 Iraq League	Naft Maysan	1-0 HT 1-0	Newroz SC
26/05/24 Iraq League	Newroz SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan
07/03/23 Iraq Cup	Newroz SC	1-2 HT 0-0	Naft Maysan

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Al Zawra'a	4	2	2	0	9	1	8
3	Al Karma	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
4	Mosul FC	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
5	Al Minaa	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	Al Shorta SC	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Al Naft SC	4	1	3	0	3	1	6
8	Diyala FC	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
9	Al Talaba	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Al Jolan SC	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	Duhok	4	0	4	0	5	5	4
14	Al Gharraf	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Zakho	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	Al Kahrabaa	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
17	Naft Maysan	4	0	3	1	1	5	3
18	Newroz SC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
19	Karbalaa FC	4	0	2	2	2	7	2
20	Al Karkh	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naft Maysan	Newroz SC
Al Naft SC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Al Gharraf	2-0 W	0-1 L
Al Karma	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Naft Maysan (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naft Maysan

WDWWLWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	0	6	D
25/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
20/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
14/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
02/06	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
28/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
24/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	5-2	10	3	W
14/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
10/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	3	4	W

Newroz SC

WLLWWDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
22/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/06	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
27/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
16/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	12	4	L
05/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
01/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naft Maysan vs Newroz SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Newroz SC win (35%). Probabilities: Naft Maysan 34%, draw 31%, Newroz SC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Naft Maysan vs Newroz SC?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Naft Maysan 1.09 · Newroz SC 1.11), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Naft Maysan vs Newroz SC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.