Football · Iraq Stars League · 03/09, 20:00

Prediction: Al Kahrabaa vs Al Gharraf

Team pages: Al Kahrabaa · Al Gharraf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Al Kahrabaa1.37

Al Gharraf1.11

1X2

41% 30% 28%

Al Kahrabaa Draw Al Gharraf

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Kahrabaa 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWLDDD

Al Gharraf 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDWLDWLL

Head-to-head

Al Kahrabaa 0–1–1 Al Gharraf (2 last)

Al Kahrabaa2-2Al Gharraf
Al Gharraf3-1Al Kahrabaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Kahrabaa 1506 · Al Gharraf 1479

	Al Kahrabaa	Draw	Al Gharraf
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Kahrabaa	Al Gharraf
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.1	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.88

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:27 +11’	2.20	2.88	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Kahrabaa 0–1–1 Al Gharraf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Kahrabaa	2-2 HT 1-1	Al Gharraf
21/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Gharraf	3-1 HT 2-1	Al Kahrabaa

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Al Zawra'a	4	2	2	0	9	1	8
3	Al Karma	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
4	Mosul FC	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
5	Al Minaa	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	Al Shorta SC	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Al Naft SC	4	1	3	0	3	1	6
8	Diyala FC	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
9	Al Talaba	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Al Jolan SC	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	Duhok	4	0	4	0	5	5	4
14	Al Gharraf	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Zakho	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	Al Kahrabaa	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
17	Naft Maysan	4	0	3	1	1	5	3
18	Newroz SC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
19	Karbalaa FC	4	0	2	2	2	7	2
20	Al Karkh	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Kahrabaa	Al Gharraf
Al Karkh	2-2 D	2-2 D
Ghaz Al Shamal	1-1 D	0-1 L
Duhok	2-1 W	1-1 D
Amanat Baghdad	1-0 W	3-1 W
Newroz SC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Kahrabaa (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Kahrabaa

LDWWDWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
20/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
27/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
19/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
15/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
11/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
06/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	5	7	D
27/04	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-3	8	6	L

Al Gharraf

DLDDWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/06	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
27/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
19/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
10/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
06/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Gharraf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Kahrabaa win (41%). Probabilities: Al Kahrabaa 41%, draw 30%, Al Gharraf 28%.

How many goals are expected in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Gharraf?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Al Kahrabaa 1.37 · Al Gharraf 1.11), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Kahrabaa vs Al Gharraf?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.