Football · Iraq Stars League · 05/09, 17:45

Prediction: Zakho vs Al Talaba

Team pages: Zakho · Al Talaba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Zakho1.43

Al Talaba1.12

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Zakho Draw Al Talaba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Zakho 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLWLDL

Al Talaba 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDDDLDWD

Head-to-head

Zakho 2–2–2 Al Talaba (6 last)

Zakho1-2Al Talaba
Al Talaba1-0Zakho
Zakho2-1Al Talaba
Al Talaba0-0Zakho
Al Talaba1-1Zakho
Al Talaba0-1Zakho

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zakho 1425 · Al Talaba 1497

	Zakho	Draw	Al Talaba
Our model	43%	29%	28%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Talaba (rating 1425 vs 1497).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zakho	Al Talaba
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:32 +24’	2.10	3.10	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zakho 2–2–2 Al Talaba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	1-2 HT 0-0	Al Talaba
13/09/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	1-0 HT 1-0	Zakho
19/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Zakho	2-1 HT 1-0	Al Talaba
22/09/24 Iraq League	Al Talaba	0-0 HT 0-0	Zakho
13/07/24 Iraq League	Al Talaba	1-1 HT 0-1	Zakho
19/02/23 Iraq League	Al Talaba	0-1 HT 0-0	Zakho

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Al Zawra'a	4	2	2	0	9	1	8
3	Al Karma	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
4	Mosul FC	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
5	Al Minaa	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	Al Shorta SC	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Al Naft SC	4	1	3	0	3	1	6
8	Diyala FC	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
9	Al Talaba	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Al Jolan SC	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	Duhok	4	0	4	0	5	5	4
14	Al Gharraf	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Zakho	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	Al Kahrabaa	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
17	Naft Maysan	4	0	3	1	1	5	3
18	Newroz SC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
19	Karbalaa FC	4	0	2	2	2	7	2
20	Al Karkh	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zakho	Al Talaba
Al Zawra'a	0-4 L	0-1 L
Diyala FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Al Minaa	1-2 L	1-1 D
Newroz SC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Al Karkh	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Talaba (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zakho

LLDLDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-4	8	6	L
25/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
28/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
24/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
20/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
16/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
11/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
06/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-3	3	7	L

Al Talaba

LDLDDDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
26/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
22/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-3	3	2	D
15/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
01/06	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
19/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
15/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
11/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
05/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zakho vs Al Talaba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zakho win (43%). Probabilities: Zakho 43%, draw 29%, Al Talaba 28%.

How many goals are expected in Zakho vs Al Talaba?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Zakho 1.43 · Al Talaba 1.12), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zakho vs Al Talaba?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.