Football · Iraq Stars League · 03/09, 20:00

Prediction: Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Team pages: Duhok · Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Duhok1.07

Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.4

1X2

27% 30% 42%

Duhok Draw Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Duhok 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDLLDDDD

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Duhok 3–1–2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya (6 last)

Duhok1-2Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya0-2Duhok
Duhok3-1Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya4-0Duhok
Duhok1-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Duhok0-0Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Duhok 1493 · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1545

	Duhok	Draw	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Our model	28%	29%	43%
Market	27%	31%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya (rating 1493 vs 1545).
H2H favours Duhok: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Duhok	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.7	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.40

X2.88

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +5’	3.40	2.88	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Duhok 3–1–2 Al Quwa Al Jawiya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Duhok	1-2 HT 1-1	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
30/12/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	0-2 HT 0-2	Duhok
12/07/25 Iraq Cup	Duhok	3-1 HT 1-0	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
19/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4-0 HT 1-0	Duhok
14/01/25 Iraq League	Duhok	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
29/11/22 Iraq League	Duhok	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Al Zawra'a	4	2	2	0	9	1	8
3	Al Karma	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
4	Mosul FC	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
5	Al Minaa	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	Al Shorta SC	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Al Naft SC	4	1	3	0	3	1	6
8	Diyala FC	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
9	Al Talaba	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Al Jolan SC	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	Duhok	4	0	4	0	5	5	4
14	Al Gharraf	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Zakho	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	Al Kahrabaa	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
17	Naft Maysan	4	0	3	1	1	5	3
18	Newroz SC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
19	Karbalaa FC	4	0	2	2	2	7	2
20	Al Karkh	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Duhok	Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Newroz SC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Al Talaba	3-3 D	2-1 W
Mosul FC	3-3 D	2-1 W
Naft Maysan	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Quwa Al Jawiya (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Duhok

WWDDLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-3	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
01/06	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
27/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
19/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
15/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	3-3	3	4	D
10/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	12	5	W
05/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	6	6	W

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

DWWLWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
25/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
21/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
28/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	2	W
20/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
15/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
10/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-3	2	9	L
06/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	8	W
02/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
27/04	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Quwa Al Jawiya win (42%). Probabilities: Duhok 27%, draw 30%, Al Quwa Al Jawiya 42%.

How many goals are expected in Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Duhok 1.07 · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.4), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Duhok vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.