Football · Iraq Stars League · 03/09, 17:45

Prediction: Mosul FC vs Al Zawra'a

Team pages: Mosul FC · Al Zawra'a

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Mosul FC0.98

Al Zawra'a1.42

1X2

25% 29% 46%

Mosul FC Draw Al Zawra'a

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mosul FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDLDDWWL

Al Zawra'a 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLDDWW

Head-to-head

Mosul FC 0–1–1 Al Zawra'a (2 last)

Al Zawra'a1-1Mosul FC
Mosul FC1-3Al Zawra'a

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mosul FC 1482 · Al Zawra'a 1529

	Mosul FC	Draw	Al Zawra'a
Our model	25%	29%	46%
Market	25%	28%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Zawra'a (rating 1482 vs 1529).
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mosul FC	Al Zawra'a
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.2	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.20

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:44 +4’	3.50	3.20	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mosul FC 0–1–1 Al Zawra'a

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	1-1 HT 1-0	Mosul FC
31/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Mosul FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Al Zawra'a

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Al Zawra'a	4	2	2	0	9	1	8
3	Al Karma	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
4	Mosul FC	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
5	Al Minaa	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	Al Shorta SC	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Al Naft SC	4	1	3	0	3	1	6
8	Diyala FC	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
9	Al Talaba	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Al Jolan SC	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	Duhok	4	0	4	0	5	5	4
14	Al Gharraf	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Zakho	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	Al Kahrabaa	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
17	Naft Maysan	4	0	3	1	1	5	3
18	Newroz SC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
19	Karbalaa FC	4	0	2	2	2	7	2
20	Al Karkh	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mosul FC	Al Zawra'a
Karbalaa FC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Al Minaa	0-1 L	0-0 D
Al Talaba	2-2 D	1-0 W
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Zawra'a (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mosul FC

DLDDLDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
26/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
27/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	4	8	L
15/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-3	2	4	D
11/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	8	D
06/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
02/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	7	D

Al Zawra'a

WWDLLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
25/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
21/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/06	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	17	3	L
27/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
20/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
14/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	10	6	D
10/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
05/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mosul FC vs Al Zawra'a?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Zawra'a win (46%). Probabilities: Mosul FC 25%, draw 29%, Al Zawra'a 46%.

How many goals are expected in Mosul FC vs Al Zawra'a?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Mosul FC 0.98 · Al Zawra'a 1.42), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mosul FC vs Al Zawra'a?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.