Football · Iraq Stars League · 04/09, 20:00

Prediction: Al Shorta SC vs Erbil SC

Team pages: Al Shorta SC · Erbil SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Al Shorta SC1.21

Erbil SC0.79

1X2

46% 30% 24%

Al Shorta SC Draw Erbil SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Shorta SC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDDLWW

Erbil SC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Al Shorta SC 4–2 Erbil SC (6 last)

Al Shorta SC0-2Erbil SC
Erbil SC1-0Al Shorta SC
Erbil SC0-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC4-1Erbil SC
Al Shorta SC2-1Erbil SC
Al Shorta SC2-1Erbil SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Shorta SC 1548 · Erbil SC 1592

	Al Shorta SC	Draw	Erbil SC
Our model	45%	32%	23%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erbil SC (rating 1548 vs 1592).
H2H favours Al Shorta SC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Shorta SC	Erbil SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.20

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
07:01 +13’	1.91	3.20	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Shorta SC 4–0–2 Erbil SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Erbil SC
24/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Shorta SC
28/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Erbil SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Shorta SC
04/01/25 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	4-1 HT 1-0	Erbil SC
09/11/23 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	2-1 HT 0-0	Erbil SC
25/04/23 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	2-1 HT 1-0	Erbil SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Al Zawra'a	4	2	2	0	9	1	8
3	Al Karma	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
4	Mosul FC	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
5	Al Minaa	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	Al Shorta SC	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Al Naft SC	4	1	3	0	3	1	6
8	Diyala FC	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
9	Al Talaba	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Al Jolan SC	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	Duhok	4	0	4	0	5	5	4
14	Al Gharraf	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Zakho	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	Al Kahrabaa	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
17	Naft Maysan	4	0	3	1	1	5	3
18	Newroz SC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
19	Karbalaa FC	4	0	2	2	2	7	2
20	Al Karkh	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Shorta SC	Erbil SC
Al Minaa	0-0 D	2-0 W
Al Karkh	2-0 W	1-0 W
Newroz SC	3-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Shorta SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Shorta SC

WWWLWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
16/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/06	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	12	4	D
28/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
20/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
15/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
10/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
05/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	5	3	W

Erbil SC

DWLWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
21/08	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
16/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	2	7	W
02/06	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
28/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
20/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
16/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
11/05	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	3-1	4-1	6	5	W
06/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Shorta SC vs Erbil SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Shorta SC win (46%). Probabilities: Al Shorta SC 46%, draw 30%, Erbil SC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Al Shorta SC vs Erbil SC?

The model expects 2 goals (Al Shorta SC 1.21 · Erbil SC 0.79), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Shorta SC vs Erbil SC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.