Football · Iraq Stars League · 26/08, 17:30

Prediction: Al Naft SC vs Duhok

Team pages: Al Naft SC · Duhok

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Al Naft SC1.09

Duhok0.96

1X2

37% 32% 31%

Al Naft SC Draw Duhok

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Naft SC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDLDLDDWWD

Duhok 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDLLDD

Head-to-head

Al Naft SC 2–3–1 Duhok (6 last)

Al Naft SC1-1Duhok
Duhok0-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC1-0Duhok
Duhok1-0Al Naft SC
Al Naft SC0-0Duhok
Al Naft SC4-0Duhok

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Naft SC 1506 · Duhok 1488

	Al Naft SC	Draw	Duhok
Our model	37%	33%	30%
Market	38%	31%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Naft SC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Naft SC	Duhok
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	1.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.38

X2.90

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +11’	2.38	2.90	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Naft SC 2–3–1 Duhok

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Duhok
30/10/25 Iraq Stars League	Duhok	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC
06/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Duhok
09/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Duhok	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Naft SC
27/06/24 Iraq League	Al Naft SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Duhok
02/04/23 Iraq League	Al Naft SC	4-0 HT 2-0	Duhok

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Al Naft SC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	Al Karma	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Mosul FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Al Gharraf	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Al Minaa	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Al Jolan SC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Diyala FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Zakho	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Duhok	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Karbalaa FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Al Zawra'a	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Naft Maysan	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Al Talaba	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
16	Newroz SC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	Al Shorta SC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Ghaz Al Shamal	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Al Kahrabaa	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
20	Al Karkh	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Naft SC	Duhok
Naft Maysan	0-0 D	2-1 W
Al Zawra'a	1-0 W	2-2 D
Mosul FC	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Naft SC

DDLDLDDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
01/06	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
27/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
19/05	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
14/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
10/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	8	4	L
05/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
01/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	0	9	L
27/04	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	12	D
22/04	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Duhok

WDWWDDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-3	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
01/06	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
27/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
19/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
15/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	3-3	3	4	D
10/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	12	5	W
05/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
01/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
27/04	Al Najaf Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Naft SC vs Duhok?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Naft SC win (37%). Probabilities: Al Naft SC 37%, draw 32%, Duhok 31%.

How many goals are expected in Al Naft SC vs Duhok?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Al Naft SC 1.09 · Duhok 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Naft SC vs Duhok?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.