Football · Iraq Stars League · 03/09, 17:45

Prediction: Diyala FC vs Al Karma

Team pages: Diyala FC · Al Karma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Diyala FC0.78

Al Karma1.39

1X2

21% 28% 51%

Diyala FC Draw Al Karma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Diyala FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWLDD

Al Karma 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LDWDDWDWDW

Head-to-head

Diyala FC 0–4–1 Al Karma (5 last)

Al Karma1-0Diyala FC
Diyala FC1-1Al Karma
Al Karma0-0Diyala FC
Diyala FC0-0Al Karma
Diyala FC2-2Al Karma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Diyala FC 1479 · Al Karma 1536

	Diyala FC	Draw	Al Karma
Our model	20%	30%	50%
Market	21%	27%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1479 vs 1536).
Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Diyala FC	Al Karma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.2	2.1 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.30

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.77

2 (-0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
22:44 +4’	4.20	3.30	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Diyala FC 0–4–1 Al Karma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/05/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	1-0 HT 0-0	Diyala FC
14/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Al Karma
29/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	0-0 HT 0-0	Diyala FC
19/01/25 Iraq Stars League	Diyala FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Karma
20/07/24 Iraq League	Diyala FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Al Karma

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Al Zawra'a	4	2	2	0	9	1	8
3	Al Karma	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
4	Mosul FC	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
5	Al Minaa	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	Al Shorta SC	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Al Naft SC	4	1	3	0	3	1	6
8	Diyala FC	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
9	Al Talaba	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
10	Al Jolan SC	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
11	Ghaz Al Shamal	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
12	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	4	0	4	0	6	6	4
13	Duhok	4	0	4	0	5	5	4
14	Al Gharraf	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Zakho	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	Al Kahrabaa	4	0	3	1	4	6	3
17	Naft Maysan	4	0	3	1	1	5	3
18	Newroz SC	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
19	Karbalaa FC	4	0	2	2	2	7	2
20	Al Karkh	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Diyala FC	Al Karma
Mosul FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Al Talaba	2-1 W	1-1 D
Al Shorta SC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Karma (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Diyala FC

DWLLLWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-3	3-3	6	7	D
25/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	1	2	D
21/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
15/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
01/06	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
27/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
19/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-4	1	7	L
15/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
11/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	4	8	W
06/05	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	0	9	D

Al Karma

LDWDDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
27/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
19/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
14/05	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
10/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	3	9	W
05/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
01/05	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Diyala FC vs Al Karma?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Karma win (51%). Probabilities: Diyala FC 21%, draw 28%, Al Karma 51%.

How many goals are expected in Diyala FC vs Al Karma?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Diyala FC 0.78 · Al Karma 1.39), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Diyala FC vs Al Karma?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.