Football · Iraq Stars League · 26/08, 20:00

Prediction: Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf

Team pages: Al Minaa · Al Gharraf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Al Minaa1.12

Al Gharraf0.93

1X2

39% 31% 29%

Al Minaa Draw Al Gharraf

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Minaa 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDDDDW

Al Gharraf 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLDDWLDW

Head-to-head

Al Minaa 1–1 Al Gharraf (2 last)

Al Gharraf0-1Al Minaa
Al Minaa0-1Al Gharraf

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Minaa 1496 · Al Gharraf 1502

	Al Minaa	Draw	Al Gharraf
Our model	39%	33%	29%
Market	40%	30%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Minaa	Al Gharraf
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.5	1.5 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.00

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +2’	2.25	3.00	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Minaa 1–0–1 Al Gharraf

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Gharraf	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Minaa
13/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Minaa	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Gharraf

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Al Naft SC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	Al Karma	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Mosul FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Al Gharraf	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Al Minaa	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Al Jolan SC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Diyala FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Zakho	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Duhok	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Karbalaa FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Al Zawra'a	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Naft Maysan	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Al Talaba	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
16	Newroz SC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	Al Shorta SC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Ghaz Al Shamal	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Al Kahrabaa	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
20	Al Karkh	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Minaa	Al Gharraf
Al Shorta SC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Mosul FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Minaa (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Minaa

LDLDWDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
15/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/06	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
28/05	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
24/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
20/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	0	8	W
14/05	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
10/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
06/05	Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League	2-2	3-3	6	5	D
02/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	4	3	L

Al Gharraf

LDDLDDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/06	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
27/05	Amanat Baghdad Iraq Stars League	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
19/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/05	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
10/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
06/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
02/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
28/04	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Minaa win (39%). Probabilities: Al Minaa 39%, draw 31%, Al Gharraf 29%.

How many goals are expected in Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Al Minaa 1.12 · Al Gharraf 0.93), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Minaa vs Al Gharraf?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.