Football · Iraq Stars League · 26/08, 20:45

Prediction: Al Talaba vs Newroz SC

Team pages: Al Talaba · Newroz SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Al Talaba1.5

Newroz SC0.95

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Al Talaba Draw Newroz SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Talaba 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLDDDLD

Newroz SC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWWDLL

Head-to-head

Al Talaba 4–1–1 Newroz SC (6 last)

Al Talaba2-2Newroz SC
Newroz SC0-1Al Talaba
Al Talaba3-1Newroz SC
Newroz SC1-0Al Talaba
Al Talaba1-0Newroz SC
Al Talaba2-1Newroz SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Talaba 1478 · Newroz SC 1477

	Al Talaba	Draw	Newroz SC
Our model	49%	29%	23%
Market	49%	28%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Talaba: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Talaba	Newroz SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.20

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:52 +13’	1.83	3.20	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Talaba 4–1–1 Newroz SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	2-2 HT 1-0	Newroz SC
14/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Newroz SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Talaba
14/03/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Talaba	3-1 HT 1-0	Newroz SC
29/10/24 Iraq League	Newroz SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Talaba
08/06/24 Iraq League	Al Talaba	1-0 HT 1-0	Newroz SC
15/07/23 Iraq League	Al Talaba	2-1 HT 0-1	Newroz SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Erbil SC	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
2	Al Naft SC	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
3	Al Karma	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
3	Mosul FC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Al Gharraf	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Al Minaa	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Al Jolan SC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Diyala FC	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
9	Zakho	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
10	Duhok	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
12	Karbalaa FC	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Al Zawra'a	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Naft Maysan	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
15	Al Talaba	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
16	Newroz SC	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
17	Al Shorta SC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
18	Ghaz Al Shamal	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
19	Al Kahrabaa	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
20	Al Karkh	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Talaba	Newroz SC
Al Karma	1-1 D	1-0 W
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	1-2 L	1-1 D
Mosul FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Erbil SC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Newroz SC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Talaba

LWLDLDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-3	3	2	D
15/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
01/06	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/05	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
19/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
15/05	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
11/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
05/05	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
01/05	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/04	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-3	3	4	L

Newroz SC

DDWLLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/06	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
27/05	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
20/05	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	6	7	W
16/05	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
11/05	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	12	4	L
05/05	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
01/05	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
27/04	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
22/04	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Talaba vs Newroz SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Talaba win (49%). Probabilities: Al Talaba 49%, draw 28%, Newroz SC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Al Talaba vs Newroz SC?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Al Talaba 1.5 · Newroz SC 0.95), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Talaba vs Newroz SC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.