Football · Iraq Stars League · 29/08, 17:30
Prediction: Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan
Team pages: Al Quwa Al Jawiya · Naft Maysan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1.89
Naft Maysan0.8
1X2
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Draw
Naft Maysan
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Naft Maysan
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
5–1–0
Naft Maysan
(6 last)
- Naft Maysan0-2Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya2-1Naft Maysan
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya4-2Naft Maysan
- Naft Maysan0-1Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya1-1Naft Maysan
- Al Quwa Al Jawiya3-0Naft Maysan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1558 · Naft Maysan 1495
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Draw | Naft Maysan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 23% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya (rating 1558 vs 1495).
- H2H favours Al Quwa Al Jawiya: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Naft Maysan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/20/60% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 2.1 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 5–1–0 Naft Maysan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/26 Iraq Stars League | Naft Maysan | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya |
| 06/02/26 Iraq Stars League | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Naft Maysan |
| 03/07/25 Iraq Stars League | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Naft Maysan |
| 16/12/24 Iraq Stars League | Naft Maysan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya |
| 15/04/24 Iraq League | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Naft Maysan |
| 09/04/24 Iraq Cup | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Naft Maysan |
Standings · Iraq Stars League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mosul FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Minaa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Erbil SC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Zawra'a | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Al Naft SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Karma | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 7 | Al Talaba | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Diyala FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Zakho | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Shorta SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Al Jolan SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Al Gharraf | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Duhok | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Al Kahrabaa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 17 | Karbalaa FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 18 | Naft Maysan | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | Newroz SC | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 20 | Al Karkh | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | Naft Maysan |
|---|---|---|
| Al Zawra'a | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Al Karma | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 21/08 | Erbil SC Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/05 | Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/05 | Al Talaba Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Al Karma Iraq Stars League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 06/05 | Mosul FC Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 02/05 | Al Minaa Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Newroz SC Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 23/04 | Erbil SC Iraq Stars League |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Naft Maysan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/08 | Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 14/08 | Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 02/06 | Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Al Najaf Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/05 | Al Qasim SC Iraq Stars League |
0-2 | 5-2 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Al Karma Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 05/05 | Duhok Iraq Stars League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Quwa Al Jawiya win (62%). Probabilities: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 62%, draw 23%, Naft Maysan 14%.
How many goals are expected in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1.89 · Naft Maysan 0.8), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Naft Maysan?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.