Football · Rwanda National League · 03/11, 15:00

Prediction: AS Kigali vs Mukura

Team pages: AS Kigali · Mukura

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

AS Kigali1.07

Mukura1.13

1X2

32% 32% 36%

AS Kigali Draw Mukura

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

AS Kigali 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDLWL

Mukura 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDWLWDWD

Head-to-head

AS Kigali 0–5–1 Mukura (6 last)

AS Kigali1-1Mukura
Mukura2-0AS Kigali
AS Kigali1-1Mukura
Mukura0-0AS Kigali
Mukura0-0AS Kigali
AS Kigali1-1Mukura

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AS Kigali 1470 · Mukura 1498

	AS Kigali	Draw	Mukura
Our model	33%	32%	36%
Market	32%	32%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AS Kigali	Mukura
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X2.80

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	2.30 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +2’	3.10	2.80	2.30
22:58 +4’	2.80▼	2.80	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AS Kigali 0–5–1 Mukura

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Rwanda National League	AS Kigali	1-1 HT 0-0	Mukura
25/10/25 Rwanda National League	Mukura	2-0 HT 1-0	AS Kigali
26/04/25 Rwanda National League	AS Kigali	1-1 HT 0-1	Mukura
03/11/24 Rwanda National League	Mukura	0-0 HT 0-0	AS Kigali
21/04/24 Rwanda National League	Mukura	0-0 HT 0-0	AS Kigali
03/12/23 Rwanda National League	AS Kigali	1-1 HT 0-0	Mukura

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gorilla FC	7	3	3	1	5	3	12
2	Marines FC	7	3	2	2	14	8	11
3	Mukura	6	3	2	1	7	4	11
4	Gicumbi FC	6	3	1	2	5	4	10
5	Musanze FC	6	3	0	3	6	6	9
6	Sunrise FC	7	1	5	1	4	7	8
7	Rayon Sports FC	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
8	Amagaju	7	2	1	4	9	8	7
9	SC Kiyovu	5	2	1	2	3	2	7
10	Police FC	7	2	1	4	3	6	7
11	Etincelles	6	2	1	3	2	8	7
12	APR FC	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
13	Bugesera	4	2	0	2	4	2	6
14	Al Hilal Omdurman	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
15	Gasogi Utd	7	1	3	3	4	9	6
16	Al Merrikh	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
17	Etoile de L'Est	6	0	4	2	4	7	4
18	AS Kigali	5	1	1	3	1	6	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AS Kigali	Mukura
Gicumbi FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Etoile de L'Est	0-0 D	1-1 D
Gorilla FC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mukura (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AS Kigali

LLWLWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
09/10	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
16/09	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
12/09	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
06/09	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-2	0-2	4	5	L
30/05	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	11	3	W
22/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
15/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
10/05	APR FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-2	1	4	L
06/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-2	1-2	6	6	L

Mukura

WDLDWLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
25/10	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
17/10	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
11/10	Amagaju Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
17/09	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
06/09	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
30/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
24/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
16/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	2-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AS Kigali vs Mukura?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mukura win (36%). Probabilities: AS Kigali 32%, draw 32%, Mukura 36%.

How many goals are expected in AS Kigali vs Mukura?

The model expects 2.2 goals (AS Kigali 1.07 · Mukura 1.13), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in AS Kigali vs Mukura?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.