Football · Rwanda National League · 31/10, 17:30

Prediction: Al Merrikh vs Mukura

Team pages: Al Merrikh · Mukura

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Al Merrikh1.37

Mukura0.6

1X2

55% 29% 16%

Al Merrikh Draw Mukura

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Merrikh 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDLLDW

Mukura 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLDWLWDW

Head-to-head

Al Merrikh 0–1–1 Mukura (2 last)

Mukura1-0Al Merrikh
Al Merrikh1-1Mukura

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Merrikh 1523 · Mukura 1504

	Al Merrikh	Draw	Mukura
Our model	55%	30%	15%
Market	56%	28%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Merrikh	Mukura
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.1	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +15’	1.61	3.20	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Merrikh 0–1–1 Mukura

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Rwanda National League	Mukura	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Merrikh
11/01/26 Rwanda National League	Al Merrikh	1-1 HT 1-1	Mukura

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marines FC	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
2	Gorilla FC	6	3	2	1	4	2	11
3	Mukura	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
4	Gicumbi FC	5	3	0	2	5	4	9
5	Amagaju	6	2	1	3	8	5	7
6	Sunrise FC	6	1	4	1	4	7	7
7	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	2	6	7
8	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
9	Musanze FC	5	2	0	3	3	5	6
10	Gasogi Utd	6	1	3	2	4	7	6
11	Rayon Sports FC	3	1	1	1	4	2	4
12	Al Merrikh	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
13	SC Kiyovu	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
14	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
15	Police FC	6	1	1	4	2	6	4
16	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
17	Al Hilal Omdurman	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
18	Etoile de L'Est	5	0	3	2	3	6	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Merrikh	Mukura
Police FC	1-0 W	0-1 L
Amagaju	0-0 D	2-1 W
Gorilla FC	1-3 L	2-1 W
Gicumbi FC	3-0 W	1-0 W
Bugesera	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Al Merrikh (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Merrikh

LWWLLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
18/09	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
31/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
27/05	APR FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
22/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
17/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
10/05	SC Kiyovu Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
02/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	0-0	3-0	4	4	W
26/04	Bugesera Rwanda National League	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
18/04	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Mukura

DWDLDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
17/10	Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
11/10	Amagaju Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
17/09	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
06/09	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
30/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
24/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
16/05	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	0-1	2-1	8	5	W
06/05	Police FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Merrikh vs Mukura?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Merrikh win (55%). Probabilities: Al Merrikh 55%, draw 29%, Mukura 16%.

How many goals are expected in Al Merrikh vs Mukura?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Al Merrikh 1.37 · Mukura 0.6), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Merrikh vs Mukura?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.