Football · Rwanda National League · 30/10, 15:00
Prediction: SC Kiyovu vs AS Kigali
Team pages: SC Kiyovu · AS Kigali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.93Total
SC Kiyovu1.25
AS Kigali0.68
1X2
SC Kiyovu
Draw
AS Kigali
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
SC Kiyovu
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
AS Kigali
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SC Kiyovu
5–1
AS Kigali
(6 last)
- SC Kiyovu3-1AS Kigali
- AS Kigali0-3SC Kiyovu
- AS Kigali0-1SC Kiyovu
- SC Kiyovu2-1AS Kigali
- AS Kigali1-0SC Kiyovu
- SC Kiyovu2-0AS Kigali
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SC Kiyovu 1551 · AS Kigali 1444
| SC Kiyovu | Draw | AS Kigali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| Market | 50% | 30% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.93 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Kiyovu (rating 1551 vs 1444).
- H2H favours SC Kiyovu: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SC Kiyovu | AS Kigali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 5 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Kiyovu 5–0–1 AS Kigali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Rwanda National League | SC Kiyovu | 3-1 HT 1-1 | AS Kigali |
| 02/11/25 Rwanda National League | AS Kigali | 0-3 HT 0-1 | SC Kiyovu |
| 09/05/25 Rwanda National League | AS Kigali | 0-1 | SC Kiyovu |
| 21/08/24 Rwanda National League | SC Kiyovu | 2-1 HT 1-1 | AS Kigali |
| 20/01/24 Rwanda National League | AS Kigali | 1-0 HT 1-0 | SC Kiyovu |
| 26/08/23 Rwanda National League | SC Kiyovu | 2-0 HT 1-0 | AS Kigali |
Standings · Rwanda National League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marines FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Gorilla FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Mukura | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Gicumbi FC | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Amagaju | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Sunrise FC | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Musanze FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Gasogi Utd | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 11 | Rayon Sports FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Al Merrikh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Kiyovu | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 15 | Police FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | APR FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | Etoile de L'Est | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SC Kiyovu | AS Kigali |
|---|---|---|
| Marines FC | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Musanze FC | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Gorilla FC | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SC Kiyovu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Marines FC Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 15/09 | Bugesera Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/09 | Musanze FC Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Gorilla FC Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | Police FC Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | AS Muhanga Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Al Merrikh Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Amagaju Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Musanze FC Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
AS Kigali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 16/09 | Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Etoile de L'Est Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Marines FC Rwanda National League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/05 | Musanze FC Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | APR FC Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Gorilla FC Rwanda National League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SC Kiyovu vs AS Kigali?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SC Kiyovu win (50%). Probabilities: SC Kiyovu 50%, draw 31%, AS Kigali 20%.
How many goals are expected in SC Kiyovu vs AS Kigali?
The model expects 1.93 goals (SC Kiyovu 1.25 · AS Kigali 0.68), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in SC Kiyovu vs AS Kigali?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.