Football · Rwanda National League · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: Etincelles vs APR FC

Team pages: Etincelles · APR FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Etincelles0.98

APR FC1.67

1X2

21% 27% 52%

Etincelles Draw APR FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Etincelles 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDWWLL

APR FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWWWWW

Head-to-head

Etincelles 1–2–3 APR FC (6 last)

APR FC3-1Etincelles
Etincelles1-3APR FC
Etincelles2-1APR FC
APR FC2-1Etincelles
APR FC2-2Etincelles
Etincelles0-0APR FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Etincelles 1495 · APR FC 1544

	Etincelles	Draw	APR FC
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	21%	27%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours APR FC (rating 1495 vs 1544).
H2H favours APR FC: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Etincelles	APR FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.30

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:21 +3’	4.33	3.30	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Etincelles 1–2–3 APR FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Rwanda Cup	APR FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Etincelles
21/04/26 Rwanda Cup	Etincelles	1-3 HT 0-1	APR FC
18/04/26 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	2-1 HT 2-0	APR FC
02/12/25 Rwanda National League	APR FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Etincelles
20/04/25 Rwanda National League	APR FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Etincelles
29/09/24 Rwanda National League	Etincelles	0-0 HT 0-0	APR FC

Standings · Rwanda National League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Marines FC	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
2	Gorilla FC	6	3	2	1	4	2	11
3	Mukura	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
4	Gicumbi FC	5	3	0	2	5	4	9
5	Amagaju	6	2	1	3	8	5	7
6	Sunrise FC	6	1	4	1	4	7	7
7	Etincelles	5	2	1	2	2	6	7
8	Bugesera	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
9	Musanze FC	5	2	0	3	3	5	6
10	Gasogi Utd	6	1	3	2	4	7	6
11	Rayon Sports FC	3	1	1	1	4	2	4
12	Al Merrikh	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
13	SC Kiyovu	4	1	1	2	1	2	4
14	AS Kigali	4	1	1	2	1	4	4
15	Police FC	6	1	1	4	2	6	4
16	APR FC	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
17	Al Hilal Omdurman	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
18	Etoile de L'Est	5	0	3	2	3	6	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Etincelles	APR FC
Marines FC	0-4 L	4-2 W
Al Hilal Omdurman	2-1 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Etincelles

DDWWWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Marines FC Rwanda National League	0-1	0-4	3	6	L
10/10	Bugesera Rwanda National League	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
15/09	Musanze FC Rwanda National League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
12/09	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
05/09	Sunrise FC Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
30/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-0	2-1	9	3	W
26/05	Gorilla FC Rwanda National League	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
16/05	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-1	3-2	7	0	W
10/05	Gasogi Utd Rwanda National League	1-2	2-2	7	6	D
02/05	Amagaju Rwanda National League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

APR FC

WLWDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	Marines FC Rwanda National League	1-2	4-2	6	3	W
31/05	Gicumbi FC Rwanda National League	1-0	2-0	11	2	W
27/05	Al Merrikh Rwanda National League	0-1	2-1	6	1	W
17/05	Rutsiro FC Rwanda National League	2-0	3-0	4	0	W
10/05	AS Kigali Rwanda National League	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
07/05	Al Hilal Omdurman Rwanda National League	0-2	0-4	5	4	L
02/05	Rayon Sports FC Rwanda National League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/04	Mukura Rwanda National League	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/04	Etincelles Rwanda National League	0-2	1-2	8	2	L
05/04	AS Muhanga Rwanda National League	1-0	1-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Etincelles vs APR FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an APR FC win (52%). Probabilities: Etincelles 21%, draw 27%, APR FC 52%.

How many goals are expected in Etincelles vs APR FC?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Etincelles 0.98 · APR FC 1.67), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Etincelles vs APR FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.