Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 21/08, 11:45

Prediction: Dandenong City vs Preston Lions

Team pages: Dandenong City · Preston Lions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Dandenong City0.91

Preston Lions1.56

1X2

22% 25% 53%

Dandenong City Draw Preston Lions

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Dandenong City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLDWW

Preston Lions 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Dandenong City 0–2–4 Preston Lions (6 last)

Preston Lions1-0Dandenong City
Preston Lions1-1Dandenong City
Dandenong City2-2Preston Lions
Preston Lions2-1Dandenong City
Dandenong City1-4Preston Lions
Preston Lions3-1Dandenong City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dandenong City 1518 · Preston Lions 1635

	Dandenong City	Draw	Preston Lions
Our model	21%	28%	51%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Preston Lions (rating 1518 vs 1635).
H2H favours Preston Lions: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dandenong City	Preston Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.9	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	3.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:31 +4’	3.80	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dandenong City 0–2–4 Preston Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	1-0 HT 1-0	Dandenong City
23/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Preston Lions	1-1 HT 0-0	Dandenong City
14/02/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong City	2-2 HT 0-1	Preston Lions
02/06/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Preston Lions	2-1 HT 0-0	Dandenong City
03/03/23 Australia Victoria Premier League 2	Dandenong City	1-4 HT 1-0	Preston Lions
20/04/19 Australia FFA Cup	Preston Lions	3-1 HT 2-1	Dandenong City

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	24	15	6	3	49	21	51
2	Hume City	24	14	4	6	48	32	46
3	Avondale	24	13	2	9	61	34	41
4	South Melbourne	24	13	2	9	38	33	41
5	Preston Lions	23	14	4	5	36	18	37
6	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	24	8	11	5	32	31	35
7	Heidelberg Utd	24	9	7	8	38	33	34
8	Melbourne City FC 2	23	8	6	9	39	30	30
9	Dandenong City	24	9	6	9	32	29	29
10	St Albans Saints	24	7	7	10	28	42	28
11	Altona Magic	24	7	6	11	27	39	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	24	5	6	13	21	47	21
13	Green Gully	24	3	6	15	20	49	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	24	4	3	17	23	54	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dandenong City	Preston Lions
Dandenong Thunder	3-0 W	3-0 W
Green Gully	0-0 D	2-2 D
Bentleigh Greens	1-2 L	1-0 W
South Melbourne	0-2 L	0-0 D
Hume City	0-0 D	2-1 W
Avondale	3-1 W	3-2 W
Heidelberg Utd	4-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Preston Lions (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Dandenong City

WWLWDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
01/08	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
24/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
17/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
10/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	7	1	L
04/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
26/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-1	0	4	W
20/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	2-3	9	4	L
05/06	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	4-1	4	0	W
30/05	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

Preston Lions

WWWDWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	10	1	W
12/08	Brunswick Juventus Australia Cup	3-1	4-1	7	3	W
08/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia Victoria Cup	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
31/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-2	5	0	D
24/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
21/07	Newcastle Jets Australia Cup	0-2	3-2	6	1	W
18/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
10/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
07/07	North Sunshine Eagles Australia Victoria Cup	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
04/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	3-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dandenong City vs Preston Lions?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Preston Lions win (53%). Probabilities: Dandenong City 22%, draw 25%, Preston Lions 53%.

How many goals are expected in Dandenong City vs Preston Lions?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Dandenong City 0.91 · Preston Lions 1.56), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dandenong City vs Preston Lions?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.