Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 29/08, 07:00

Prediction: St Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder

Team pages: St Albans Saints · Dandenong Thunder

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

St Albans Saints2.43

Dandenong Thunder1.01

1X2

67% 20% 13%

St Albans Saints Draw Dandenong Thunder

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

St Albans Saints 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDWLDW

Dandenong Thunder 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

St Albans Saints 1–2–3 Dandenong Thunder (6 last)

Dandenong Thunder2-2St Albans Saints
St Albans Saints1-5Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder2-2St Albans Saints
St Albans Saints1-0Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder3-0St Albans Saints
St Albans Saints0-4Dandenong Thunder

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Albans Saints 1509 · Dandenong Thunder 1388

	St Albans Saints	Draw	Dandenong Thunder
Our model	68%	19%	13%
Market	67%	20%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Albans Saints (rating 1509 vs 1388).
H2H favours Dandenong Thunder: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Albans Saints	Dandenong Thunder
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	0.6 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.6	1.3 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:12	1.33	4.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Albans Saints 1–2–3 Dandenong Thunder

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	2-2 HT 0-1	St Albans Saints
17/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria	St Albans Saints	1-5 HT 0-3	Dandenong Thunder
03/05/25 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	2-2 HT 1-0	St Albans Saints
28/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria	St Albans Saints	1-0 HT 0-0	Dandenong Thunder
27/04/24 Australia NPL Victoria	Dandenong Thunder	3-0 HT 2-0	St Albans Saints
27/05/23 Australia Victoria Premier League	St Albans Saints	0-4 HT 0-3	Dandenong Thunder

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	25	16	6	3	54	21	54
2	Hume City	25	15	4	6	51	34	49
3	Avondale	25	14	2	9	63	34	44
4	Preston Lions	25	15	5	5	40	18	41
5	South Melbourne	25	13	2	10	39	35	41
6	Heidelberg Utd	25	10	7	8	40	34	37
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	25	8	11	6	34	34	35
8	St Albans Saints	25	8	7	10	30	43	31
9	Dandenong City	25	9	7	9	32	29	30
10	Melbourne City FC 2	25	8	6	11	41	40	30
11	Altona Magic	25	7	6	12	27	41	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	25	6	6	13	27	49	24
13	Green Gully	25	3	6	16	21	51	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	25	4	3	18	23	59	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Albans Saints	Dandenong Thunder
Green Gully	2-1 W	1-3 L
Bentleigh Greens	1-1 D	2-1 W
South Melbourne	0-2 L	0-1 L
Hume City	3-2 W	1-3 L
Avondale	1-1 D	0-11 L
Caroline Springs George Cross FC	2-2 D	2-3 L
Altona Magic	2-1 W	0-2 L
Oakleigh Cannons	2-2 D	0-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: St Albans Saints (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Albans Saints

DWLDDDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
14/08	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	1-1	3	0	D
02/08	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
24/07	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	3-2	5	5	W
18/07	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/07	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
03/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
26/06	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-2	12	3	L
21/06	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
05/06	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	2	4	D

Dandenong Thunder

LLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-5	0	0	L
16/08	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
01/08	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
25/07	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
17/07	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
11/07	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
05/07	South Melbourne Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
27/06	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-3	0	2	L
20/06	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	0-3	0-11	3	2	L
06/06	Caroline Springs George Cross FC Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	2-3	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Albans Saints win (67%). Probabilities: St Albans Saints 67%, draw 20%, Dandenong Thunder 13%.

How many goals are expected in St Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder?

The model expects 3.44 goals (St Albans Saints 2.43 · Dandenong Thunder 1.01), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St Albans Saints vs Dandenong Thunder?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.