Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 29/08, 07:00

Prediction: Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs South Melbourne

Team pages: Caroline Springs George Cross FC · South Melbourne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Caroline Springs George Cross FC1.29

South Melbourne1.82

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Caroline Springs George Cross FC Draw South Melbourne

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Caroline Springs George Cross FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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South Melbourne 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1–0 South Melbourne (1 last)

South Melbourne0-4Caroline Springs George Cross FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1537 · South Melbourne 1535

	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	Draw	South Melbourne
Our model	26%	25%	49%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	South Melbourne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.7	3.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:02 +9’	3.40	3.60	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1–0–0 South Melbourne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria	South Melbourne	0-4 HT 0-3	Caroline Springs George Cross FC

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	25	16	6	3	54	21	54
2	Hume City	25	15	4	6	51	34	49
3	Avondale	25	14	2	9	63	34	44
4	Preston Lions	25	15	5	5	40	18	41
5	South Melbourne	25	13	2	10	39	35	41
6	Heidelberg Utd	25	10	7	8	40	34	37
7	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	25	8	11	6	34	34	35
8	St Albans Saints	25	8	7	10	30	43	31
9	Dandenong City	25	9	7	9	32	29	30
10	Melbourne City FC 2	25	8	6	11	41	40	30
11	Altona Magic	25	7	6	12	27	41	27
12	Bentleigh Greens	25	6	6	13	27	49	24
13	Green Gully	25	3	6	16	21	51	15
14	Dandenong Thunder	25	4	3	18	23	59	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Caroline Springs George Cross FC	South Melbourne
Altona Magic	1-1 D	2-3 L
Heidelberg Utd	0-0 D	1-2 L
Melbourne City FC 2	1-0 W	3-0 W
St Albans Saints	2-2 D	2-0 W
Oakleigh Cannons	1-1 D	2-1 W
Preston Lions	0-2 L	0-0 D
Dandenong City	3-2 W	2-0 W
Dandenong Thunder	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Caroline Springs George Cross FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Hume City Australia NPL Victoria	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
15/08	Avondale Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
01/08	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
24/07	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
18/07	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
12/07	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
04/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
27/06	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-2	0	3	L
20/06	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	3-0	3-2	4	4	W
06/06	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	3-2	2	7	W

South Melbourne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Heidelberg Utd Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-2	5	0	L
15/08	Melbourne City FC 2 Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
02/08	St Albans Saints Australia NPL Victoria	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
24/07	Oakleigh Cannons Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	2-1	6	1	W
18/07	Preston Lions Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/07	Dandenong City Australia NPL Victoria	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
05/07	Dandenong Thunder Australia NPL Victoria	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
28/06	Green Gully Australia NPL Victoria	0-1	1-2	13	4	L
19/06	Bentleigh Greens Australia NPL Victoria	3-1	5-1	10	2	W
07/06	Altona Magic Australia NPL Victoria	2-1	2-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs South Melbourne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an South Melbourne win (49%). Probabilities: Caroline Springs George Cross FC 26%, draw 25%, South Melbourne 49%.

How many goals are expected in Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs South Melbourne?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Caroline Springs George Cross FC 1.29 · South Melbourne 1.82), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Caroline Springs George Cross FC vs South Melbourne?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.