Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/08, 02:20

Prediction: Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro

Team pages: Vasco da Gama · Cruzeiro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Vasco da Gama1.32

Cruzeiro1.29

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Vasco da Gama Draw Cruzeiro

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vasco da Gama 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLDDLL

Cruzeiro 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Vasco da Gama 1–4–1 Cruzeiro (6 last)

Cruzeiro3-3Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama2-0Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro1-0Vasco da Gama
Cruzeiro1-1Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama0-0Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro2-2Vasco da Gama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vasco da Gama 1487 · Cruzeiro 1554

	Vasco da Gama	Draw	Cruzeiro
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruzeiro (rating 1487 vs 1554).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vasco da Gama	Cruzeiro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.9	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.27
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.01 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +3’	2.60	3.20	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	2.44	3.27	3.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vasco da Gama 1–4–1 Cruzeiro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	3-3 HT 1-0	Vasco da Gama
27/09/25 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	2-0 HT 1-0	Cruzeiro
27/04/25 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	1-0 HT 0-0	Vasco da Gama
29/09/24 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	1-1 HT 0-1	Vasco da Gama
16/06/24 Brazil Serie A	Vasco da Gama	0-0 HT 0-0	Cruzeiro
22/11/23 Brazil Serie A	Cruzeiro	2-2 HT 2-1	Vasco da Gama

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	24	11	6	7	34	33	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Bragantino	23	10	5	8	28	23	35
8	Atletico Mineiro	23	9	6	8	30	27	33
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	23	35	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
19	Vasco da Gama	23	5	7	11	24	38	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vasco da Gama	Cruzeiro
Palmeiras	1-4 L	1-1 D
EC Bahia	0-0 D	2-1 W
Mirassol	1-1 D	3-1 W
Internacional	1-4 L	2-1 W
Flamengo	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cruzeiro (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vasco da Gama

DWLLLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-4	3	4	L
16/08	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
09/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
26/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
17/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
31/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
25/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
16/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-4	4	5	L
11/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
03/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	6	6	D

Cruzeiro

WDWDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
09/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
31/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
26/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
23/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	7	8	W
01/06	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
24/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
17/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
10/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	8	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vasco da Gama win (36%). Probabilities: Vasco da Gama 36%, draw 29%, Cruzeiro 35%.

How many goals are expected in Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Vasco da Gama 1.32 · Cruzeiro 1.29), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.