Football · Brazil Serie A · 06/09, 21:00
Prediction: Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense
Team pages: Cruzeiro · Athletico Paranaense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Cruzeiro1.55
Athletico Paranaense0.95
1X2
Cruzeiro
Draw
Athletico Paranaense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Cruzeiro
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Athletico Paranaense
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cruzeiro
1–3–2
Athletico Paranaense
(6 last)
- Athletico Paranaense2-1Cruzeiro
- Athletico Paranaense3-0Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro2-0Athletico Paranaense
- Cruzeiro1-1Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense3-3Cruzeiro
- Athletico Paranaense0-0Cruzeiro
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cruzeiro 1541 · Athletico Paranaense 1555
| Cruzeiro | Draw | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Athletico Paranaense: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cruzeiro | Athletico Paranaense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.5 | 2.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruzeiro 1–3–2 Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/26 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 26/10/24 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Cruzeiro |
| 27/06/24 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 01/12/23 Brazil Serie A | Cruzeiro | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Athletico Paranaense |
| 29/07/23 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Cruzeiro |
| 07/11/19 Brazil Serie A | Athletico Paranaense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cruzeiro |
Standings · Brazil Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 45 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 39 | 32 | 42 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 36 | 39 |
| 6 | EC Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 37 |
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 36 |
| 8 | Bragantino | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 25 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 31 | 34 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 32 |
| 11 | Sao Paulo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 28 | 30 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 37 | 30 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 37 | 29 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 36 | 26 |
| 15 | Gremio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 25 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 39 | 25 |
| 17 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 25 |
| 18 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 36 | 24 |
| 19 | Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 39 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cruzeiro | Athletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Flamengo | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Corinthians | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Mirassol | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Botafogo | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Internacional | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cruzeiro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Coritiba Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 23/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 01/06 | Fluminense Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Chapecoense Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Palmeiras Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Athletico Paranaense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Botafogo Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Bragantino Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 09/08 | Santos Brazil Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 31/07 | Corinthians Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 25/07 | Internacional Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Mirassol Brazil Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Remo Brazil Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Flamengo Brazil Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 11/05 | Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruzeiro win (50%). Probabilities: Cruzeiro 50%, draw 28%, Athletico Paranaense 22%.
How many goals are expected in Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Cruzeiro 1.55 · Athletico Paranaense 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cruzeiro vs Athletico Paranaense?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.