Football · Brazil Serie A · 06/09, 21:00

Prediction: Internacional vs Santos

Team pages: Internacional · Santos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Internacional1.55

Santos1.06

1X2

48% 28% 25%

Internacional Draw Santos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLDDDD

Santos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLDLWD

Head-to-head

Internacional 4–2–0 Santos (6 last)

Santos1-2Internacional
Internacional1-1Santos
Santos1-2Internacional
Internacional7-1Santos
Santos1-1Internacional
Internacional1-0Santos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional 1482 · Santos 1548

	Internacional	Draw	Santos
Our model	48%	28%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos (rating 1482 vs 1548).
H2H favours Internacional: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional	Santos
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.56
2	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:44 +1’	1.95	3.40	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:44	1.87	3.56	4.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional 4–2–0 Santos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-2 HT 0-0	Internacional
25/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-1 HT 1-0	Santos
24/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-2 HT 0-1	Internacional
22/10/23 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	7-1 HT 4-0	Santos
04/06/23 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-1 HT 1-1	Internacional
01/10/22 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	1-0 HT 1-0	Santos

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	25	13	6	6	37	25	45
4	Fluminense	25	11	9	5	39	32	42
5	Cruzeiro	25	11	6	8	35	36	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Atletico Mineiro	24	10	6	8	32	28	36
8	Bragantino	24	10	5	9	29	25	35
9	Coritiba	24	9	7	8	30	31	34
10	Corinthians	24	8	8	8	26	24	32
11	Sao Paulo	24	8	6	10	29	28	30
12	Botafogo	23	8	6	9	37	37	30
13	Vitoria	25	8	5	12	24	37	29
14	Santos	23	6	8	9	33	36	26
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Vasco da Gama	24	6	7	11	27	39	25
17	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
18	Mirassol	23	6	6	11	26	36	24
19	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
20	Chapecoense	23	2	8	13	24	46	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional	Santos
Palmeiras	0-0 D	1-1 D
Athletico Paranaense	0-2 L	0-2 L
Bragantino	1-3 L	2-0 W
Vitoria	0-2 L	3-1 W
Vasco da Gama	4-1 W	3-0 W
Coritiba	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santos (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional

DWLLLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
18/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
30/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
25/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
23/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
31/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
23/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
09/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	8	4	D

Santos

DWLLWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	10	6	D
16/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	10	2	L
25/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	12	7	D
17/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
31/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
24/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	4	L
17/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-3	0-3	3	6	L
10/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
02/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional vs Santos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional win (48%). Probabilities: Internacional 48%, draw 28%, Santos 25%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional vs Santos?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Internacional 1.55 · Santos 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional vs Santos?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.