Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Sao Paulo vs Bragantino

Team pages: Sao Paulo · Bragantino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Sao Paulo1.26

Bragantino0.9

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Sao Paulo Draw Bragantino

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sao Paulo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLDLD

Bragantino 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDDLD

Head-to-head

Sao Paulo 2–2–2 Bragantino (6 last)

Bragantino1-2Sao Paulo
Bragantino1-2Sao Paulo
Sao Paulo0-1Bragantino
Bragantino2-2Sao Paulo
Bragantino1-0Sao Paulo
Bragantino1-1Sao Paulo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sao Paulo 1504 · Bragantino 1515

	Sao Paulo	Draw	Bragantino
Our model	43%	31%	25%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sao Paulo	Bragantino
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.1	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:41 +15’	2.10	3.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sao Paulo 2–2–2 Bragantino

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-2 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
21/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Bragantino	1-2 HT 0-1	Sao Paulo
09/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Sao Paulo	0-1 HT 0-0	Bragantino
17/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	2-2 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo
08/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Bragantino	1-0 HT 1-0	Sao Paulo
20/11/24 Brazil Serie A	Bragantino	1-1 HT 1-1	Sao Paulo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	40	19	48
2	Flamengo	22	13	6	3	44	19	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	34	28	38
5	Cruzeiro	23	10	6	7	32	32	36
6	EC Bahia	23	8	10	5	32	28	34
7	Bragantino	22	9	5	8	27	23	32
8	Atletico Mineiro	22	9	5	8	30	27	32
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	23	8	5	10	23	33	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	22	6	7	9	24	30	25
16	Internacional	23	5	9	9	24	28	24
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	23	5	8	10	27	37	23
19	Vasco da Gama	22	5	7	10	23	34	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sao Paulo	Bragantino
Coritiba	1-1 D	0-0 D
Athletico Paranaense	1-2 L	1-1 D
Fluminense	1-2 L	1-1 D
Corinthians	2-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bragantino (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sao Paulo

WDLLDLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
26/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	7	1	L
01/06	Remo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
17/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	6	L
10/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	7	8	L
03/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	14	5	D
26/04	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	12	2	W

Bragantino

LWLWWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
09/08	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
26/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
18/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
31/05	Internacional Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
25/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
17/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
10/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
26/04	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	9	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sao Paulo vs Bragantino?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sao Paulo win (44%). Probabilities: Sao Paulo 44%, draw 30%, Bragantino 26%.

How many goals are expected in Sao Paulo vs Bragantino?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Sao Paulo 1.26 · Bragantino 0.9), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Bragantino?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.