Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/08, 23:30

Prediction: Mirassol vs Palmeiras

Team pages: Mirassol · Palmeiras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Mirassol0.96

Palmeiras1.5

1X2

23% 28% 49%

Mirassol Draw Palmeiras

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Mirassol 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWDWLL

Palmeiras 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLWDLW

Head-to-head

Mirassol 1–1–4 Palmeiras (6 last)

Palmeiras1-0Mirassol
Palmeiras1-0Mirassol
Mirassol2-1Palmeiras
Palmeiras1-1Mirassol
Mirassol2-3Palmeiras
Palmeiras3-1Mirassol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mirassol 1455 · Palmeiras 1579

	Mirassol	Draw	Palmeiras
Our model	23%	28%	48%
Market	23%	28%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (rating 1455 vs 1579).
H2H favours Palmeiras: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mirassol	Palmeiras
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.30

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.31
2	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 2.13 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +3’	4.00	3.30	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34	3.57	3.27	2.12
01:30 +1’	3.60▲	3.31▲	2.13▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mirassol 1–1–4 Palmeiras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 1-0	Mirassol
18/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Palmeiras	1-0 HT 0-0	Mirassol
10/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Mirassol	2-1 HT 2-1	Palmeiras
17/07/25 Brazil Serie A	Palmeiras	1-1 HT 0-0	Mirassol
23/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Mirassol	2-3 HT 1-1	Palmeiras
24/02/24 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Palmeiras	3-1 HT 1-1	Mirassol

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	24	11	6	7	34	33	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Bragantino	23	10	5	8	28	23	35
8	Atletico Mineiro	23	9	6	8	30	27	33
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	23	35	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
19	Vasco da Gama	23	5	7	11	24	38	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mirassol	Palmeiras
Flamengo	1-5 L	3-0 W
Cruzeiro	1-3 L	1-1 D
Remo	2-1 W	1-1 D
Vasco da Gama	1-1 D	4-1 W
Fluminense	1-0 W	2-3 L
Atletico Mineiro	1-3 L	1-2 L
Chapecoense	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mirassol

WDLWLWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-5	4	3	L
09/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
30/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-1	6	4	W
26/07	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
18/07	Gremio Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
30/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
24/05	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
16/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
10/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
04/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-1	1	7	W

Palmeiras

DDWWWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	4-1	5	4	W
15/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	7	L
09/08	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
30/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	1	7	W
27/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-2	10	3	L
23/07	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
31/05	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
24/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	4	12	W
17/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
10/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	17	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Palmeiras win (49%). Probabilities: Mirassol 23%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 49%.

How many goals are expected in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Mirassol 0.96 · Palmeiras 1.5), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Palmeiras?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.