Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/08, 23:30

Prediction: Gremio vs Chapecoense

Team pages: Gremio · Chapecoense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Gremio1.91

Chapecoense0.79

1X2

63% 23% 14%

Gremio Draw Chapecoense

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Gremio 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Chapecoense 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gremio 2–2–2 Chapecoense (6 last)

Gremio1-2Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-1Gremio
Chapecoense0-0Gremio
Gremio0-1Chapecoense
Chapecoense1-3Gremio
Gremio2-1Chapecoense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gremio 1459 · Chapecoense 1433

	Gremio	Draw	Chapecoense
Our model	63%	23%	14%
Market	63%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gremio	Chapecoense
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.05

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.54 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +1’	1.48	4.20	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34	1.53	4.15	5.94
01:30 +1’	1.54▲	4.20▲	6.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gremio 2–2–2 Chapecoense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 America Friendlies	Gremio	1-2 HT 0-2	Chapecoense
17/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-1 HT 1-1	Gremio
26/07/22 Brazil Serie B	Chapecoense	0-0 HT 0-0	Gremio
16/04/22 Brazil Serie B	Gremio	0-1 HT 0-0	Chapecoense
20/11/21 Brazil Serie A	Chapecoense	1-3 HT 0-1	Gremio
10/08/21 Brazil Serie A	Gremio	2-1 HT 2-1	Chapecoense

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	24	11	6	7	34	33	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Bragantino	23	10	5	8	28	23	35
8	Atletico Mineiro	23	9	6	8	30	27	33
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	23	35	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
19	Vasco da Gama	23	5	7	11	24	38	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gremio	Chapecoense
Bragantino	0-1 L	1-2 L
Mirassol	1-2 L	1-1 D
Santos	3-2 W	2-2 D
EC Bahia	1-1 D	3-3 D
Flamengo	0-1 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gremio (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gremio

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
08/08	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
26/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
18/07	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
30/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-3	4	6	L
24/05	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	8	4	W
17/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/05	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
03/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Chapecoense

LDLLLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-2	3-3	3	3	D
09/08	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
25/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
23/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-4	5	1	L
18/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
31/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
24/05	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
17/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	3	3	L
10/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
03/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gremio vs Chapecoense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gremio win (63%). Probabilities: Gremio 63%, draw 23%, Chapecoense 14%.

How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Chapecoense?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Gremio 1.91 · Chapecoense 0.79), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gremio vs Chapecoense?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.