Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/08, 21:00

Prediction: Corinthians vs Santos

Team pages: Corinthians · Santos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Corinthians1.63

Santos0.99

1X2

51% 28% 22%

Corinthians Draw Santos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Corinthians 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDDWL

Santos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDWLLWLDLW

Head-to-head

Corinthians 3–2–1 Santos (6 last)

Santos1-1Corinthians
Santos1-1Corinthians
Santos3-1Corinthians
Corinthians1-0Santos
Corinthians2-1Santos
Corinthians2-1Santos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corinthians 1533 · Santos 1551

	Corinthians	Draw	Santos
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	51%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Corinthians: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corinthians	Santos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.30

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.66

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +2’	1.83	3.30	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:30 +1’	1.76	3.61	4.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Corinthians 3–2–1 Santos

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Santos	1-1 HT 1-1	Corinthians
22/01/26 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Santos	1-1 HT 0-1	Corinthians
16/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Santos	3-1 HT 2-0	Corinthians
18/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Corinthians	1-0 HT 0-0	Santos
09/03/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Corinthians	2-1 HT 1-1	Santos
13/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Paulista	Corinthians	2-1 HT 2-0	Santos

Standings · Brazil Serie A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	24	11	6	7	34	33	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Bragantino	23	10	5	8	28	23	35
8	Atletico Mineiro	23	9	6	8	30	27	33
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	23	35	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
19	Vasco da Gama	23	5	7	11	24	38	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corinthians	Santos
Bragantino	2-0 W	2-0 W
Athletico Paranaense	0-0 D	0-2 L
EC Bahia	1-1 D	2-2 D
Gremio	3-1 W	2-3 L
Botafogo	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Corinthians (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Corinthians

LWLWWWDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
09/08	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
31/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
26/07	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
24/07	Remo Brazil Serie A	3-0	3-0	3	2	W
30/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-1	8	6	W
24/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	1-2	1-3	2	7	L
10/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	1-1	3-2	7	8	W
04/05	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-2	5	7	L

Santos

DDWLLWLDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
09/08	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-2	0-2	10	2	L
25/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-2	12	7	D
17/07	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
31/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-1	1	8	W
24/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	1-1	2-3	5	4	L
17/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-3	0-3	3	6	L
10/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
02/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
25/04	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-2	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corinthians vs Santos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corinthians win (51%). Probabilities: Corinthians 51%, draw 28%, Santos 22%.

How many goals are expected in Corinthians vs Santos?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Corinthians 1.63 · Santos 0.99), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Santos?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.