Football · Brazil Serie A · 31/08, 00:30

Prediction: EC Bahia vs Internacional

Team pages: EC Bahia · Internacional

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

EC Bahia1.54

Internacional1

1X2

49% 28% 24%

EC Bahia Draw Internacional

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

EC Bahia 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDDDDW

Internacional 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLDDDD

Head-to-head

EC Bahia 2–3–1 Internacional (6 last)

Internacional0-1EC Bahia
Internacional2-2EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-0Internacional
Internacional2-1EC Bahia
EC Bahia1-1Internacional
EC Bahia1-1Internacional

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EC Bahia 1537 · Internacional 1459

	EC Bahia	Draw	Internacional
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EC Bahia (rating 1537 vs 1459).
H2H favours EC Bahia: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EC Bahia	Internacional
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.01
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +4’	1.90	3.40	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +1’	2.02	3.60	3.62
01:30 +1’	2.01▼	3.61▲	3.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EC Bahia 2–3–1 Internacional

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	0-1 HT 0-1	EC Bahia
08/11/25 Brazil Serie A	Internacional	2-2 HT 1-0	EC Bahia
23/10/25 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-0 HT 1-0	Internacional
29/05/25 Copa Libertadores	Internacional	2-1 HT 0-0	EC Bahia
04/04/25 Copa Libertadores	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 0-0	Internacional
28/07/24 Brazil Serie A	EC Bahia	1-1 HT 1-0	Internacional

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	24	11	6	7	34	33	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Bragantino	23	10	5	8	28	23	35
8	Atletico Mineiro	23	9	6	8	30	27	33
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	23	35	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
19	Vasco da Gama	23	5	7	11	24	38	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EC Bahia	Internacional
Vitoria	2-0 W	0-2 L
Vasco da Gama	0-0 D	4-1 W
Atletico Mineiro	1-1 D	0-0 D
Coritiba	2-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EC Bahia

DLWWDDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
16/08	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
09/08	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
30/07	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
26/07	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	1-1	1-1	7	7	D
22/07	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
18/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	2-0	10	1	W
30/05	Botafogo Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-1	10	9	W
26/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
17/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	7	8	D

Internacional

DWLLLLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
18/08	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
09/08	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
30/07	Flamengo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
25/07	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
23/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
31/05	Bragantino Brazil Serie A	0-2	1-3	1	6	L
23/05	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
16/05	Vasco da Gama Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
09/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	0-1	2-2	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EC Bahia vs Internacional?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EC Bahia win (49%). Probabilities: EC Bahia 49%, draw 28%, Internacional 24%.

How many goals are expected in EC Bahia vs Internacional?

The model expects 2.54 goals (EC Bahia 1.54 · Internacional 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in EC Bahia vs Internacional?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.