Football · Brazil Serie A · 30/08, 21:00

Prediction: Flamengo vs Botafogo

Team pages: Flamengo · Botafogo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Flamengo2.14

Botafogo0.93

1X2

64% 21% 14%

Flamengo Draw Botafogo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Flamengo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDDWWL

Botafogo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLWDWDL

Head-to-head

Flamengo 5–1–0 Botafogo (6 last)

Botafogo0-3Flamengo
Botafogo1-2Flamengo
Botafogo0-3Flamengo
Flamengo0-0Botafogo
Flamengo1-0Botafogo
Botafogo1-3Flamengo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Flamengo 1605 · Botafogo 1474

	Flamengo	Draw	Botafogo
Our model	64%	21%	14%
Market	64%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Flamengo (rating 1605 vs 1474).
H2H favours Flamengo: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Flamengo	Botafogo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.33

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:33 +1’	1.44	4.33	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Flamengo 5–1–0 Botafogo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	0-3 HT 0-2	Flamengo
15/02/26 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Botafogo	1-2 HT 0-1	Flamengo
16/10/25 Brazil Serie A	Botafogo	0-3 HT 0-1	Flamengo
18/05/25 Brazil Serie A	Flamengo	0-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo
13/02/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca	Flamengo	1-0 HT 0-0	Botafogo
02/02/25 Brazil Supercopa	Botafogo	1-3 HT 0-2	Flamengo

Standings · Brazil Serie A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Palmeiras	24	15	6	3	44	20	51
2	Flamengo	23	13	6	4	45	21	45
3	Athletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	31	20	41
4	Fluminense	24	11	8	5	36	29	41
5	Cruzeiro	24	11	6	7	34	33	39
6	EC Bahia	24	9	10	5	34	28	37
7	Bragantino	23	10	5	8	28	23	35
8	Atletico Mineiro	23	9	6	8	30	27	33
9	Corinthians	23	8	8	7	25	22	32
10	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	28	30	31
11	Botafogo	22	8	6	8	35	34	30
12	Vitoria	24	8	5	11	23	35	29
13	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	27	26	27
14	Santos	22	6	7	9	32	35	25
15	Gremio	23	6	7	10	24	31	25
16	Internacional	24	5	10	9	24	28	25
17	Mirassol	22	6	5	11	25	35	23
18	Remo	24	5	8	11	28	39	23
19	Vasco da Gama	23	5	7	11	24	38	22
20	Chapecoense	22	1	8	13	23	46	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Flamengo	Botafogo
Cruzeiro	1-2 L	1-0 W
Vitoria	2-0 W	0-1 L
Sao Paulo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Flamengo

WDLWWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	Mirassol Brazil Serie A	1-0	5-1	3	3	W
10/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
30/07	Internacional Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
26/07	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/07	Chapecoense Brazil Serie A	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
30/05	Coritiba Brazil Serie A	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
24/05	Palmeiras Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-3	8	12	L
18/05	Athletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
11/05	Gremio Brazil Serie A	0-0	1-0	6	4	W

Botafogo

LDWDLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
09/08	Fluminense Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
26/07	Cruzeiro Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
24/07	Vitoria Brazil Serie A	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	Santos Brazil Serie A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
30/05	EC Bahia Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
23/05	Sao Paulo Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
17/05	Corinthians Brazil Serie A	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
10/05	Atletico Mineiro Brazil Serie A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
02/05	Remo Brazil Serie A	1-0	1-2	9	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Flamengo vs Botafogo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Flamengo win (64%). Probabilities: Flamengo 64%, draw 21%, Botafogo 14%.

How many goals are expected in Flamengo vs Botafogo?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Flamengo 2.14 · Botafogo 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Botafogo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.